Understanding flood risk associated with climate change | Ayoola Apolola | TEDxAUCollege
The speaker, based in Lagos, Nigeria, argues that the climate crisis should not be framed as a doomsday scenario but rather as a profound opportunity for human ingenuity, exemplified by shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. She presents data showing that climate change increases flood risk significantly, projecting a 124% increase in exposed population in Lagos, which disproportionately widens existing socio-economic gaps. She urges the audience to become innovative problem-solvers to achieve solutions that reduce atmospheric CO2 and move away from the fossil fuel economy.
## Speakers & Context
- Speaker based in Lagos, Nigeria.
- Personal experience: Grew up in Lagos, describing it as a "fastpaced vibrant and a chaotic City" and a "beautiful coastal city," noting the tropical wet and dry seasons.
- Academic Motivation: Initially attributed flooding to "Rapid urbanizing City of Lagos," but later realized the shifting seas linked to climate change, leading her to pursue a Master's degree in climate change science and policy.
- Current framing of the crisis: Seeks to reframe the narrative from a "doomsday story" to a "Redemption of humanity."
## Theses & Positions
- **Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier:** Climate change increases extreme precipitation, leading to more intense wet days and more dry days, making areas already populated by the urban poor especially vulnerable to flooding.
- **Human Causality:** Human activity, particularly the pursuit of comfort through fossil fuel burning, is the direct driver of climate change, as demonstrated by the spike in Earth's climate history post-10,000 years ago.
- **Socio-economic Impact:** The climate crisis does not act in isolation; it "exposes the social injustice that we already have in our world," widening existing economic gaps.
- **Opportunity Framing:** Climate change must be viewed as an opportunity for global transition, specifically by shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which could solve issues like insurgency in oil-rich countries.
- **Call to Action:** The necessity for the audience to become "Innovative" and "inventive," supporting solutions that reduce atmospheric $\text{CO}_2$ and store it in carbon sinks.
## Concepts & Definitions
- **Tropical Wet and Dry Seasons:** Lagos/Nigeria experiences roughly six months of persistent rainfall followed by six months of low rainfall.
- **Climate Anxiety:** The feeling stemming from the fear of the seas, which used to bring joy (for farming/escape) but now bring "fear and dread."
- **Climate Warming Mechanism:** As the climate warms, the atmosphere's capacity to hold more water vapor increases, resulting in more extreme precipitation events.
- **Fossil Fuel Burning:** Primary mechanism through which human pursuit of comfort causes climate warming.
- **SDG8:** Sustainable Development Goal 8, focused on decent work and economic growth, which the speaker questions pursuing within a fossil-fuel-dependent world.
- **Carbon Sinks:** Areas or processes that naturally absorb and store atmospheric $\text{CO}_2$.
## Mechanisms & Processes
- **Flood Risk Quantification:** The "business as usual" trajectory for Lagos projects that today's "100 Year inflow" rainfall magnitude could become a "one in 20 year rainfall magnitude."
- **Population Exposure Growth:** Combining climate change trajectory with projected population growth reveals a projected $124\%$ increase in the exposed population to flooding for this particular climate trajectory.
- **The Law of Inertia (Newton):** Quoted to argue that change is directly proportional to the applied force, implying human action drives the current climatic shift.
- **Problem Solving Analogy:** Humanity has a proven ability to solve problems through technological advancement (building ships, roads, curing diseases like polio and Coronavirus).
## Timeline & Sequence
- **Historical Climate Record:** Earth naturally controlled climate for over $800,000$ years; the stability and predictability preceded 10,000 years ago.
- **Current State:** The modern era has seen a sharp "spike" in climate variation due to human input.
- **Flood Monitoring:** The speaker modeled the impact on Lagos, noting the shift from historical flooding patterns to those influenced by climate change.
- **Global Goals Timeline:** The ratification of the UN Sustainable Development Goals in **2015** aimed to achieve goals by **2030**.
## Named Entities
- **Lagos:** Africa's most populous city; coastal city in Nigeria.
- **Nigeria:** Country where Lagos is located.
- **World Health Organization (WHO):** Referenced in relation to post-disaster water access statistics.
- **UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):** Set to eradicate poverty, end global hunger, and protect the planet by 2030.
- **Pakistan:** Location of a recent flood event used as a comparative example.
## Numbers & Data
- **Global Temperature Increase:** Increased by **$1.2^\circ\text{C}$** since preindustrial levels.
- **IPCC Warning:** The world is "locked at $1.5^\circ\text{C}$ before **2050**," even if emissions are cut in half.
- **Precipitation Increase:** Extreme precipitation could increase by **$7\%$** on average per degree of warming.
- **Inflow Magnitude Shift:** "100 Year inflow" rainfall magnitude could become a "one in 20 year rainfall magnitude."
- **Population Increase:** Exposed population to flooding is projected to increase by **$124\%$**.
- **World Hunger/Water Stats (Pakistan Example):** $\sim 10$ million persons still lack access to safe drinking water; $\sim 33$ million estimated flood victims at the time; $\sim 21$ million persons requiring humanitarian assistance, including $\sim 9$ million school children.
## Examples & Cases
- **Lagos Flooding Experience:** Personal accounts include rolling up trousers to navigate floods, or hanging onto a truck to traverse flooded areas.
- **Pakistan Flood Aftermath:** Showed that even six months after floods, vulnerable populations (children suffering from malnutrition, poor sanitation, and low school enrollment) are most affected.
- **Energy Transition Case Study:** Shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy could potentially help solve "insurgency and radicalization of youths in oil rich countries" like Nigeria.
- **Medical Advances Analogy:** Medicine's ability to cure polio and Coronavirus is compared to the potential for solving the climate crisis with the right mindset.
## Tools, Tech & Products
- **Modeling Tools:** Used to model the impact of climate change on flood risk in Lagos (specifically using the concept of extreme precipitation).
- **Data Visualization:** Graphs displayed illustrating climate control changes over $800,000$ years.
## References Cited
- **IPCC:** Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report cited regarding the $1.5^\circ\text{C}$ target.
- **UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):** Mentioned as the global framework ratified in 2015.
- **Newton's Law of Inertia:** Quoted regarding the proportionality of force application to change.
## Trade-offs & Alternatives
- **Energy Source Trade-off:** Transitioning from fossil fuels (finite resources) to renewable energy.
- **Problem-Solving Trade-off:** Viewing climate change as an insurmountable cliff versus viewing it as an impetus for "Redemption of humanity."
## Counterarguments & Caveats
- Debate suggesting humans are not the primary drivers of change, viewing humanity as victims of "continuously changing natural cycle."
- The comparison to the SDGs implies a conflict between the pursuit of economic growth (SDG 8) and sustainable environmental limits.
## Methodology
- **Quantitative Modeling:** Using climate science to model flood risk trajectories in Lagos.
- **Comparative Analysis:** Comparing historical climate cycles (natural variance) against the current human-driven spike in variability.
- **Socio-Economic Correlation:** Combining climate projections with demographic data (population growth) to forecast resource vulnerability.
## Conclusions & Recommendations
- The fundamental action required is to shift mindset: view climate change as an opportunity, not a doom.
- Specific actions recommended: 1) Becoming innovative and inventive; 2) Supporting inventions that reduce atmospheric $\text{CO}_2$ and store it in carbon sinks; 3) Moving away from the fossil fuel economy toward renewables.
## Implications & Consequences
- Climate change acts as a magnifier of existing social and economic injustices, making the poor and marginalized disproportionately vulnerable to environmental shocks.
- Solving the climate crisis could solve geopolitical issues such as insurgency in oil-rich nations.
## Verbatim Moments
- *"it's an absolute privilege to be here today to speak to you about the climate crisis and the urgency to address this crisis as as it relates to flood risk"*
- *"I would sometimes roll the sleeves of my trousers to navigate the flood sometimes need deep and on my lucky days I would have to hang on to a truck to navigate the flooded areas"*
- *"the seas that brought us joy... became seasons of ien fear and dread"*
- *"the atmosphere's capacity to hold more water vapor increases which means that we have more drier days and more intense W days"*
- *"man's input in the climate has caused the spike that we have experienced today"*
- *"business as usual climate part for Humanity is not an option"*
- *"for this particular climate trajectory we would see an exposed population to flooding increase by 124%"*
- *"what climate change does is to expose the social injustice that we already have in our world"*
- *"I do not see climate change as a cliff I see climate change as the Redemption of humanity"*
- *"become Innovative become inventive"*