The Future is Calling Us | Dabney Standley | TEDxSHC Youth
The speaker argues that to actively shape a desirable future, we must develop empathy for our future selves by practicing structured scenario planning, as relying solely on present-day or linear thinking leads to inadequate preparation for rapid, complex change. This idea is supported by the comparison between the difficulty of traveling to the deep ocean versus space, and the necessity of considering "what if" scenarios to move beyond current anxieties.
## Speakers & Context
- Unnamed history teacher; speaker at TEDx Youth at SHC.
- Context is shaped by the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, which shifted focus from long-term future planning to immediate action and observable results.
- The speaker is addressing students who are 15, 16, and 17 years old.
## Theses & Positions
- Teaching students about the future is a necessary role for a history teacher in the 21st century.
- Historically, people viewed the future as uncertain, with stability prized and change feared, a view that has shifted dramatically.
- The current era represents a critical "inflection point" where the rate of change outpaces humanity's ability to adapt.
- Connecting the present to the future requires intentional modeling of behavior by adults, as children look to adults for guidance.
- True action and change require a collective effort, as evidenced by the quote: *"Individuals can do next to nothing alone; only with the help of many will meaningful change occur with the help of others."*
- The ability to empathize with our future selves—a skill that requires self-control—is vital for making positive present-day choices.
- To proactively shape the future, we must move beyond current anxieties by constructing rich, imagined "possible Futures" through rigorous scenario planning.
- The overall mandate is not just to *adapt* to the future, but to *shape* it: *"Our future is literally calling out to us begging us not to be ready to adapt to it but to shape it."*
## Concepts & Definitions
- **Inflection Point:** The moment when the rate of change becomes higher than the ability to adapt to it.
- **Empathy for future selves:** The emotional capacity required to make present decisions that benefit future iterations of oneself (e.g., choosing not to buy an item now).
- **Scenario Planning:** A defined methodology used to prepare for potential futures by taking threads from the present and following them out, asking "what if."
- **Possible Futures:** Scenarios developed through rigorous thinking that explore alternative trajectories based on current historical drivers and sources of change/stability.
## Mechanisms & Processes
- **Pandemic Modeling:** The COVID-19 experience provided a model where observable actions (masking, distancing) led to visible feedback (infection rate charts), creating a concrete "relationship with the future."
- **Empathy Development:** Self-control in the present is achieved by empathizing with future selves, which is a deeper mechanism than simply understanding the risks.
- **Scenario Construction:** The process of developing possible futures involves drawing on both historical drivers of change and current sources of stability to build narratives of what *might* happen.
- **Behavioral Observation:** Adults must model the desired behavior, as children observe and adopt the actions (or inaction) of their caretakers.
## Timeline & Sequence
- **Prior to 2020:** A period of increased optimism about the future in the U.S. and the world, historically supported by technological advances.
- **Early 2020 (End of March/into April):** The start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced a shift in perspective toward immediate, observable consequences.
- **Present Day (Third decade of the 21st century):** Characterized by a fraying of faith in positive futures, increased pessimism, and a faster rate of change than adaptive capacity.
- **Late 1940s:** The advent of the atomic age, which concurrently led to the development of methods to forecast future risk management.
## Named Entities
- **Jane McGonigal:** Author and researcher at The Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, California.
- **The Institute for the Future:** Organization mentioned in relation to Jane McGonigal's work.
- **Nokia:** Swedish company cited as an example of a tech giant that dominated in a past era (before Apple/Uber/Spotify).
- **Robert Kennedy:** Figure quoted regarding the urgency of action.
## Numbers & Data
- Year of pandemic onset: **End of March and into April 2020**.
- Current time framing: **Middle of the third decade of the 21st century**.
- Pew Research finding (Last year): Americans are more pessimistic about several aspects of the U.S. future than ever.
- Previous Pew study (10 years prior to pandemic): Significant majority believed the U.S. was in Decline after 30 years.
- Pessimism regarding the U.S. and World At Large: Increased from **10% to maybe 60%** (on a questionnaire).
- Climate/Physical threat scenario: Temperatures above **115 degrees** for weeks or months; loss of snow on mountains in **Colorado or California**.
## Examples & Cases
- **Pandemic curve modeling:** Using charts of infection rates (e.g., in San Francisco) to demonstrate direct, visible feedback between present action and future outcome, enabling a "relationship with it."
- **Tech Cycles:** The shift from Nokia dominating the smartphone market to the current ecosystem featuring Instagram, Apple Pay, Uber, and Tesla.
- **Climate Change Scenarios:** Future scenarios modeling a world with sustained extreme heat (115+ degrees) or loss of regional snowpack.
- **Deep Sea Analogy:** The challenge is analogous to being able to predict deep-sea activity (10,000 atm) while being able to manage the visible, present risks.
## Tools, Tech & Products
- **FMRI studies:** Used to show that when imagining oneself in the future, the brain treats the subject like a stranger.
## References Cited
- **Yogi Bara:** Source/source of a quote regarding the future: *"the future ain't what it used to be."*
- **Pew Research Study:** Cited data showing increased American pessimism about the future of the U.S.
- **Ed Young:** Author cited for an article in *The Atlantic* discussing present-day sacrifices for future self-benefit.
- **Robert Kennedy:** Figure quoted to underscore the immediate need to shape the future.
## Counterarguments & Caveats
- The problem is that students currently tend to project a future that looks like *today*, rather than envisioning a fundamentally different world.
- The initial belief that the future was only manageable through prediction, which was then superseded by the need to *shape* it.
## Conclusions & Recommendations
- Adults must actively model positive, proactive behavior to guide the next generation toward actionable hope.
- We must learn to create "Rich future scenarios" through rigorous thinking to foster empathy and build capacity for necessary present-day choices.
- The ultimate call to action is to move beyond passive adaptation and actively *shape* the future we want.
## Implications & Consequences
- Failure to develop future empathy leads to poor present-day decisions, making society vulnerable to rapid, complex challenges.
- A proactive approach to scenario planning transforms the paralyzing sense of overwhelm into a structured set of actionable research questions ("what if?").
## Verbatim Moments
- *"Tell your story change the conversation organized by students TEDx Youth at SHC."*
- *"The future ain't what it used to be."*
- *"Our actions today had exponential consequences in the future."*
- *"Optimism about the future has been an important part of our culture."*
- *"Pessimism has deepened with specific anxieties around the future of democracy, climate change, the direction of our society."*
- *"Individuals can do next to nothing alone; only with the help of many will meaningful change occur with the help of others."*
- *"The challenges we face in the future require us that we act together as a community."*
- *"When we don't empathize with our future selves... we forego the opportunity to bend the Arc of the future in a Direction that we want."*
- *"our brains behave as if we're thinking about a stranger a completely different person."*
- *"We need to start thinking about a future that doesn't look like today."*
- *"we also started to develop methods to forecast the future to help manage that risk not to predict it but just to take a few threads from the present and follow them out into the future and ask what if."*
- *"Our future is literally calling out to us begging us not to be ready to adapt to it but to shape it."*