The future of personal energy use | Scott Sklar | TEDxHerndon
Technology innovation, which involves blending ideas and technology, is converging to create a decentralized energy future. The speaker argues that this shift, exemplified by personal devices and smart buildings, is vital because current energy use is the single largest source of global pollution. To realize this, global systems must adapt their governing "rules of the game." ## Speakers & Context - Presenter/Speaker: Addresses the convergence of ideas and technology, particularly concerning energy. - Audience/Setting: Implied conference or forum setting. - Speaker's Office Location: Arlington, Virginia, used as a primary example of convergence technology. ## Theses & Positions - Energy convergence is defined as a blend of ideas and technology that dictates future energy use. - The extraction, conversion, and use of energy is the single largest cause of air and water pollution, impacting the global climate. - Technology innovation is converging toward energy solutions that minimize water usage and become highly personalized (personalizing transport and communications). - The future of energy systems requires local generation drawing from solar, wind, waste heat, small hydro, and battery storage. - The shift towards smart systems demands that the "rules of the game" must change to allow this innovation to flourish. ## Concepts & Definitions - **Convergence (General)**: The overall theme, demonstrated by different technologies blending (e.g., smartphone merging communication, data, camera, and GPS). - **Convergence (Energy)**: Specifically relates to energy, describing the merging of ideas and technologies in the energy sector. - **Smart Grid**: The envisioned future state of energy systems, integrating diverse technologies locally to function seamlessly and generate more than the sum of their individual parts. - **Material Science Revolution**: The advancement enabling things like placing wind turbines in water and improving energy storage materials. - **Interoperability**: A key concept shown by the smartphone, demonstrating how different components (data, phone, MP3, camera, GPS) work together seamlessly. ## Mechanisms & Processes - **Electric Grid Evolution**: Originating in the 1850s with centralized models (Central Station power plants) using coal, Natural Gas, nuclear, or oil, it moved through transmission and distribution lines to buildings. - **Smartphone Evolution**: Progressed from simple phone $\rightarrow$ adding data/communication $\rightarrow$ adding camera $\rightarrow$ adding MP3 player $\rightarrow$ adding GPS. - **Energy Storage Process**: Utilizes batteries, such as Lithium-ion batteries placed within building walls, to store energy harvested from solar sources. - **Smart Monitoring/Diagnostics**: Systems connected to the internet allow users to monitor output (solar/wind), battery levels, money saved, and pollution prevented; includes automated diagnostics at 2 A.M. - **Solar Placement Modeling**: Using supercomputers to overlay data (like Google Maps) onto a building roof to pinpoint the optimal locations for solar energy generation, plotted over seasons and time of day. - **Smart Grid Function**: Integrating local sources (solar, wind, waste heat, hydro, batteries) within communities and buildings to create a decentralized power source. - **Waste Heat Utilization**: Using anaerobic digestion of waste to generate methane gas, which can be used for heating and stoves. ## Timeline & Sequence - **1850s**: Start date of the electric grid's evolution. - **32 years ago or 33 years ago**: Timeframe related to the initial phone/cellular concept presentation. - **23 years ago**: Timeframe when the phone evolved into the first smartphone. - **15 years ago**: Timeframe when the first built-in camera was added to phones. - **2001**: Year the first GPS was incorporated into phones. ## Named Entities - **Senator John Glenn**: Friend/mentor figure who saw Earth from space. - **Fuji Industrial**: Manufacturer of inkjet printers that produce the ink used in thin-film photovoltaics. - **McKenzie**: Source of trend data used for illustration. ## Numbers & Data - **Single largest cause**: Describes the scale of air and water pollution and global climate impact. - **15 times more**: Ratio describing the cost comparison for cellular service versus maintaining a certain quality of communication. - **7.2 billion**: Current global population count. - **3 billion**: Population count when the speaker was young (with hair). - **4 billion more**: Projected increase in global population over one lifetime. - **1.6 billion**: Number of people currently without electricity. - **1.7 billion**: Number of people who have electricity for less than 10 hours a day. - **12 volts of current**: Voltage required to operate electrochromic glass. - **30**: Number of companies developing standardized modular web-enabled battery banks. ## Tools, Tech & Products - **Electric grid**: System originally conceptualized with Central Station power plants, transmission lines, substations, distribution lines, and buildings/manufacturing plants. - **Smartphones**: Device showing convergence of communication, data, camera, and GPS. - **GPS**: Technology integrated into phones starting in 2001 for services like MapQuest. - **Portable Media Technology**: Historical progression including vinyl records, cassette tapes, CD, DVD, and MP3 players. - **Thin film photovoltaics**: Technology used in awnings/lighting that converts light into electricity using specialized ink. - **Ink (thin film)**: Material produced by Fuji Industrial inkjet printers that generates electricity when applied to substrates. - **Electrochromic glass**: Material usable in buildings, controllable via 12 volts of current to change from clear to pure black. - **Smart Battery Bank**: System component capable of monitoring and diagnostics via the internet. - **Nest Thermostat**: Example of a consumer device enabling Wi-Fi controlled temperature, alarms (smoke, water, natural gas), and leak alerts. - **Electric bicycles**: Emerging personal transport option; China has 6 million units, projected tenfold increase in the US. - **Supercomputers**: Technology capable of analyzing data in intuitive ways to optimize energy placement. ## Examples & Cases - **Speaker's Office Building (Arlington, VA)**: Demonstrates convergence using solar roofing shingles, insulating glass, a wind turbine, a fuel cell, a smart battery bank, and LED lights, all off-grid. - **Thin film photovoltaics in awnings**: Ink applied by Fuji Industrial inkjet printers used around US covered walkways and bus stops to produce lighting power. - **Smart Battery Bank monitoring**: Demonstrates automated diagnostics, e.g., flagging a battery "twice as hot as the other batteries" at 2 A.M. - **Solar-powered plastic light**: A low-cost unit sold in Africa/South Asia, combining plastic, solar cell, LED lights, and thin film battery for reliable lighting. - **Data Overlay for Solar**: Using Google Maps equivalent to plot solar energy potential across a roof, considering seasons and time of day to maximize yield. ## Trade-offs & Alternatives - **Centralized vs. Local Energy**: The choice between massive, centralized power plants (coal, gas, nuclear) versus decentralized, local generation (solar, wind, waste heat, etc.). - **Energy Source for Lighting**: Choosing between grid connection versus self-contained generation using thin film photovoltaics. - **Climate Impact**: The massive pollution resulting from current energy models versus the clean methods proposed. ## Counterarguments & Caveats - The existing power structure requires trillions of dollars in investment to sustain centralized, polluting plants. - Some observers may dismiss the integration of multiple technologies into one device as "silly." - The speaker notes that the internet connectivity for monitoring is an *observational* feature, not necessarily a cyber security vulnerability. ## Methodology - **Observation/Demonstration**: Using the speaker's own office building as a real-time model of converged technology. - **Analysis**: Comparing the technological progression of communications (phones, media) to the current energy convergence trend. - **Modeling**: Employing supercomputers to model optimal solar placement across complex roof surfaces. ## Conclusions & Recommendations - Future energy systems must be decentralized, local, and incorporate multiple sources (solar, wind, waste heat, hydro, batteries). - The "rules of the game" must change to nurture this technological convergence. - The speaker urges immediate adoption of these technologies to ensure reliable, clean energy access, citing the massive global population need. ## Implications & Consequences - Continued reliance on outdated, centralized energy methods will sustain massive global pollution and climate change. - Failing to implement decentralized grids will deny access to clean power for developing nations (1.6 billion people). - The shift represents a "sea change" requiring a systemic overhaul of energy policy and infrastructure. ## Open Questions - What specific policy changes are required to accelerate the shift from centralized power structures to resilient, local energy grids? ## Verbatim Moments - *"so I'm here to talk about energy but I called it convergence and I want to start by saying it's a blend of ideas and technology."* - *"the extraction conversion and use of energy is the single largest cause of air and water pollution in the world as well as emissions that affect our Global Climate."* - *"Technology Innovation is converging to change the way we will use energy that will not require hardly any water and will become personal as transportation and Communications has come."* - *"It's the material convergence this energy convergence."* - *"it's all in the market happening now."* - *"The goal here is that what we've seen in Communications is a convergence of ideas and Tech technology."* - *"I can go in on any building in the world and with a host of companies look at the top of that building okay and that you know with you know Google Maps or equivalent and I can overlay on top of that building where the best places on that roof is to put the solar energy."* - *"It's a sea change and it requires an understanding of our planet and understanding that the rules of the game need to change and nurture this Innovation."* - *"it's as close as you can be to God."*