How to predict the future | Pavlína Louženská | TEDxUNYP
The speaker argues that while the ability to predict trends through "reading the room" (*Kuki wo Yomu*) was once possible by observing patterns, the current fragmentation of attention across countless digital "rooms" means analysts must now gain trust and physically enter these digital spaces to understand emerging cultures. This shift from mass trends to hyper-specific interests requires a new, deeper level of investigative engagement from trend forecasters. ## Speakers & Context - Unnamed speaker, giving a talk on trend forecasting. - Opens the talk by observing the audience's coffee preferences (e.g., plant-based milk vs. traditional milk). - Mentions the audience's current connection habits: *"an average household has 11 connected devices."* ## Theses & Positions - Trend forecasting relies on *"Kuki wo Yomu,"* or Japanese for reading the room, which involves reading visual signals like clothes, expressions, body language, overheard conversations, and even smells. - Pattern recognition, gathered from sources like social media listening, Google Trends, IPO filings, and stock prices, allows for building forecasts. - The current digital environment—characterized by massive content volume—has caused a loss of the *"global room,"* leading to lost shared patterns and shared culture. - The best way to predict the future now is not just observation, but direct engagement: *"We need to enter them. We need to start talking to those people. We need to gain them trust and invite them to our rooms and visit their own rooms in order to understand what's happening in them."* - The disappearance of mass market trends is beneficial because it allows individuals to find niche interests, suggesting that individual exploration is now the key focus. ## Concepts & Definitions - **Kuki wo Yomu:** Japanese term meaning "reading the room"; the ability to observe people and their surroundings to detect underlying trends. - **Global Room:** The conceptual state before the digital fragmentation, where culture and trends were shared across a large mass audience. - **Panelak:** A physical space mentioned to illustrate how people can still connect even when living in separate rooms. - **Shared Culture:** The common set of ideas, language, or idols that bind a generation together. ## Mechanisms & Processes - **Trend Forecasting Cycle (Historical):** Observe $\rightarrow$ Spot signals/patterns $\rightarrow$ Build forecast (e.g., Netflix seeing the gaming industry was 8x bigger than Hollywood). - **Current Signal Gathering:** Analyzing social media listening, Google Trends, IPO filings, and stock prices to find patterns. - **Digital Fragmentation Effect:** The sheer volume of content (e.g., a TikTok star making 22,000 videos a year vs. Audrey Hepburn's 2 movies a year) overwhelms the ability to perceive global patterns. - **New Investigative Method:** Moving beyond observation to active immersion—gaining trust within private groups to understand localized interests. ## Timeline & Sequence - **2014:** WGSN predicted plant-based milk would take over the world. - **2017:** WGSN released a specific report flagging Oatly as a brand to watch. - **2018–2022:** Period showing a significant market rise for plant-based milks. - **Historical Comparison (Media Output):** Audrey Hepburn: 2 movies/year, 2 hours each. TikTok star: 22,000 videos/year, 32 seconds each. - **Generation Shift:** The speaker notes that Generation Z is the last generation that can be described because they still share pieces of culture. ## Named Entities - **WGSN:** Trend forecasting agency that correctly predicted plant-based milk's rise. - **Oatly:** Brand specifically cited by WGSN as one to watch regarding plant-based milk. - **Victoria Paris:** Example of a modern content creator on TikTok. - **Bad Bunny:** Artist cited as the most streamed artist on Spotify for three consecutive years. - **Shein:** Chinese fast fashion retailer cited as the most searched fashion brand across 113 countries. - **Nike:** Brand cited as one of the top 10 most searched fashion brands. ## Numbers & Data - Time frame for plant-based milk sales growth: **2018 to 2022**. - Magnitude of plant-based milk sales increase: **25 times**. - Oatly's revenue: **$195 million** (in the most recent year). - Prediction certainty timeframe: **up to seven years ahead with 95% certainty**. - Number of connected devices in an average household: **11**. - Number of countries searching for Shein: **113**. - Low point for Beyonce's ranking: **barely makes it to top ten** (compared to Bad Bunny's 3 years). - Age of an average gamer: **35 years old**. - Percentage of gamers who are women: **48%**. ## Examples & Cases - **Oatly success:** WGSN correctly predicting the success of Oatly over the years. - **Netflix:** Seeing the gaming industry (>$3.5 billion) was bigger than Hollywood/Music combined, leading to the *Witcher* series. - **Content Overload:** Reading one Tolkien *Lord of the Rings* book daily is analogous to content consumption. - **Personal Nostalgia:** The speaker remembering the 90s trends (Britney Spears, low-rise jeans, Leonardo DiCaprio in *Titanic*). - **Niche Connection:** Meeting a young girl who navigates Dungeons and Dragons, BTS, Roblox, and Final Fantasy via Discord and WhatsApp groups. ## Tools, Tech & Products - **Google Trends:** Tool used for monitoring search patterns. - **Social Media Listening:** Process used to gather real-time sentiment and trends. - **iPhone screens:** Source of observable signals during "reading the room." - **TikTok:** Platform used for rapid, high-volume content creation. - **Spotify:** Platform used for tracking music popularity. - **Discord/WhatsApp:** Platforms used by the young girl to share niche community interests. ## References Cited - **WGSN:** Trend forecasting agency. - **Tolkien's *Lord of the Rings*:** Used as a measure of content consumption. ## Trade-offs & Alternatives - **Global Room (Shared Experience) vs. Panelak (Individualized Experience):** The shift from large, shared cultural moments to millions of smaller, separate, but interconnected digital spaces. - **Observation (Reading the Room) vs. Immersion (Entering the Room):** The proposed trade-off in methodology—moving from passive observation to active relationship-building. ## Methodology - **Initial Observation:** Watching the audience's coffee choices. - **Deep Dive Technique:** *Kuki wo Yomu*—systematic observation of visual and auditory cues in a physical space. - **Data Aggregation:** Combining macro data (IPO filings, stock prices) with micro data (social media mentions). - **Current Protocol:** Active participation; entering digital spaces and building trust to understand underlying interests. ## Conclusions & Recommendations - The industry must shift from simply identifying visible patterns to actively integrating into private, specialized digital communities. - The fundamental skill remains *Kuki wo Yomu*, but it must now be paired with deep trust-building and digital infiltration. - The core takeaway is the need to move beyond the surface level of content to understand the "why" within segmented digital lives. ## Implications & Consequences - Loss of shared cultural experiences means that large-scale, definable demographic groups (like Gen Z) may cease to exist as coherent, single units. - The future of trend analysis requires anthropological investigation into digital tribes rather than simply tracking aggregate market data. ## Verbatim Moments - *"And in 2017, they added a report that Oatly is that one brand to watch. And they were 100% right."* - *"What was the first thing you did when you entered this room? You looked around. You looked at the people, their clothes, their facial expressions, their body language. You overheard their conversations."* - *"Essentially what you were doing is called Kuki wo Yomu. It's a Japanese terms for reading the room."* - *"Every time I talk about trend forecasting, I always say it's a bit like surfing."* - *"In fact, it's bigger than music and movies combined."* - *"Now we don't live together anymore. We live in millions of separate rooms that are changing at a very fast pace."* - *"If we don't share trends, we don't share culture."* - *"We might live in those separate rooms, but you know, if you ever lived in Panelak, you know you are never alone."* - *"We need to enter them. We need to start talking to those people. We need to gain them trust and invite them to our rooms and visit their own rooms in order to understand what's happening in them."* - *"I'm sure you will find out another thing. That there are 10 million ways how to drink your coffee, and that some people, they drink tea."*