Beginnings: Russ Conser at TEDxSugarLand
Great ideas do not appear fully formed but follow an S-curve pattern, which requires a slow, often messy "childhood" process of iteration and conflict. The speaker suggests that crucial lessons can be learned from historical examples, such as the Wright brothers' reliance on seemingly unrelated skills, the conflict between AC and DC power, and the early struggles of the iPod. To find world-changing innovations, one must look for people with unusual skills in unfamiliar places and listen closely when experts challenge an idea. ## Speakers & Context - Unnamed speaker; presenter at a conference focusing on innovation. - Compares the common misconception of ideas "dropping out of the sky" to the actual process of innovation development. - Suggests looking for creative processes in historical anecdotes to understand innovation's power and development phases. ## Theses & Positions - Innovations do not appear fully formed but follow an "S-curve pattern" of development. - The process of innovation involves a slow beginning, a "childhood" period of nurturing, and often conflict or struggle. - Key lessons from history: seemingly irrelevant skills can be crucial for new ideas (Wright brothers); skepticism and wonder are natural parts of the process; and necessary tension/conflict are healthy parts of innovation. - To find great ideas, one should look for people doing unusual things in unusual places with unusual skills, and listen when experts challenge an idea to understand the underlying systemic adjustments needed. ## Concepts & Definitions - **S-curve pattern:** The model describing how innovations develop over time, starting slowly, accelerating, and then flattening. - **"Childhood of an idea":** The period during innovation where the idea is nurtured and refined, often involving "fights on the playground" and learning from mistakes. - **Crisis (in technology):** An inevitable evolutionary process where people challenge and review a great idea, creating tension, conflict, or disagreement. - **Plowing furrows in the mind:** A metaphor for the healthy, preparatory process of developing ideas over time. ## Mechanisms & Processes - **The S-Curve Process:** Slow beginning $\rightarrow$ Nurturing/Childhood $\rightarrow$ Conflict/Crisis $\rightarrow$ Widespread adoption. - **Data Gathering (Wright Brothers):** Found that scientific data in journals did not match reality, forcing them to gather empirical data by having their airplanes fly on kites, which provided data on airflow over wings. - **AC vs. DC Power Conflict:** Edison (DC power) viewed Tesla's AC power as a threat because AC could be transported across the country, whereas DC was limited to local neighborhoods. - **Illustrating Danger (Edison):** Edison electrocuted an elephant on Coney Island's sidewalks to demonstrate the potential dangers of AC power. - **Market Adoption Lag (iPod):** The iPod was introduced in 2001, but it took three years before the product showed material signs of adoption, illustrating the lag between invention and market success. - **Iterative Development (iPod):** The initial iPod was "lame" and "clunky" (on display), improving only as Apple perfected the mini and subsequent versions. ## Timeline & Sequence - **1903 (Kitty Hawk):** Wright brothers' initial flights documented in *Scientific American*. - **1905 (Dayton, Ohio):** Wright brothers make later flights, noted in *Scientific American*. - **January 1, 1905:** An obscure magazine, *Gleanings in Bee Culture*, reported on flights in Dayton, Ohio, preceding *Scientific American*. - **1908:** US military signs a contract for $25,000 for the Wright brothers' planes after meeting specifications. - **2001:** iPod was introduced; Apple stock was shown as tracking against iPod sales. - **Six years later:** Investing in Apple yielded returns over six times the initial capital, far exceeding the time gap between the Wright Brothers' initial success and the military contract. ## Named Entities - **Kitty Hawk:** Location associated with the first flight. - **North Carolina:** State associated with the "land of first flight." - **Scientific American:** Journal that published notes on the Wright brothers' flights in 1903 and 1905. - **Dayton, Ohio:** Location where later flights were observed in 1905. - **Gleanings in Bee Culture:** Obscure magazine detailing early flight observations (Jan 1, 1905). - **Amos Root:** Editor of *Gleanings in Bee Culture* who observed the flights. - **Thomas Edison:** Inventor associated with electricity/lighting, and his role in the AC vs. DC battle. - **Nikola Tesla:** Croatian immigrant skilled in electricity, who worked with George Westinghouse. - **George Westinghouse:** Successfully built the Niagara Falls power station using AC power. - **Alfred Southwick:** Dentist who suggested using AC power for executing prisoners in New York. - **Apple:** Company involved in the iPod innovation. - **Steve Jobs:** Mentioned as someone who was *not* fishing during the iPod's early development period. ## Numbers & Data - Wright Brothers' 1903 flight date: **1903**. - Wright Brothers' later flight observation year: **1905**. - Contract signed date: **1908**. - US military purchase price: **$25,000**. - iPod launch year: **2001**. - Stock/Investment timeframe: **Six years** for significant returns on Apple stock. ## Examples & Cases - **Wright Brothers' Airplanes:** Used a contraption with two big fins mounted at 90° on a bicycle as a "poor man's wind tunnel" to gather data on airflow over wings. - **Observation Bias:** *Gleanings in Bee Culture* (1905) observed flights before *Scientific American* (1905) reported on them, showing differing levels of awareness/skepticism. - **AC/DC Showdown:** Edison's demonstration using an elephant on Coney Island sidewalks to show the danger of AC power. - **Electric Chair:** The technology developed using AC power, stemming from the rivalry between early innovators, involving Thomas Edison's team and Alfred Southwick. - **iPod Adoption Curve:** The gap between the 2001 introduction and the point where the product showed clear market success, which was a significant lag. ## Tools, Tech & Products - **Contraption (Wright Brothers):** A device featuring two large fins mounted at 90° on a bicycle, used as a rudimentary wind tunnel. - **Powered Airplane:** Aircraft invented by the Wright Brothers. - **Light Bulb:** Edison's famous invention, associated with electric lighting. - **Power Station:** Pearl Street Power Station in New York; Niagara Falls power station utilizing AC power. - **iPod:** Digital music player; initial model was "lame" and "clunky." ## References Cited - *Scientific American* (journal reference, 1903 and 1905 issues). - *Gleanings in Bee Culture* (magazine reference, Jan 1, 1905). - *Structure of Scientific Revolutions* (book by Thomas Kuhn). ## Trade-offs & Alternatives - **Research Methods:** Finding data through actual experimentation (flying planes on kites) was required because existing scientific journal data did not match observed reality. - **Power Transmission:** DC power was limited to local neighborhoods, while AC power could be transported across the country. ## Counterarguments & Caveats - The premise that historical inventors (like the Wright brothers) "solved the problem" by simply having the right skills is incomplete; the process required rigorous data gathering and recognizing existing knowledge gaps. - Skepticism (seen in the media coverage of 1905) is a normal and expected part of the innovation process, not an external roadblock. ## Methodology - **Historical Analysis:** Examining historical technological breakthroughs (airplanes, electricity, music players) to extract underlying patterns. - **Deconstruction:** Breaking down complex inventions (like the electric chair) to reveal the tensions and competitive rivalries that spurred development. - **Pattern Recognition:** Applying the model of skepticism vs. wonder to understand the time lag between invention and mass adoption. ## Conclusions & Recommendations - Innovation does not spring fully formed; it requires navigating a messy, cyclical "childhood" phase involving tension, challenge, and iteration. - To generate new ideas, one must look for people using unusual skills in unusual places, and to view expert challenges not as roadblocks, but as prompts to adjust one's underlying system. ## Implications & Consequences - The tension, fights, and disagreements inherent in the development process—even when they appear negative (like electrocuting an elephant or causing market skepticism)—are structurally healthy components of innovation. ## Verbatim Moments - *"I think a lot of people think that ideas come from the idea stor that somehow they just drop out of the sky and land in our laps"* - *"what I find Most Fascinating is what happened in between it's that period of the childhood of an idea"* - *"what was it about the right brothers that allowed them to fly when many other scientists for the hundreds of years of mankind have been trying to fly"* - *"the scientific data that they could find in the journals didn't match reality so they had to go get data"* - *"I think it's a healthy part of the process I think that was cun's message to us"* - *"don't think people were wrong"*