To Save Farming We have to Save Farmers | Eric Sannerud | TEDxMinneapolisSalon
The speaker argues that the American food system faces collapse due to declining farmer numbers and consolidation, but advocates for a "national farmer incubator" modeled after scalable fast-food franchises to rebuild the sector. She provides USDA data showing 95,000 farmers were lost between 2007 and 2012, and recommends aiming for 220,000 new farmers to restore both food security and rural economies.
## Speakers & Context
- Unnamed speaker: Discussing the state of the American food system, using personal farming experiences as an anchor.
- Setting: Near a farm location (gravel drive passing), contrasting healthy growth with an unexpected field of ice.
- Timeframes discussed: June 20th, 2012 (day of crisis realization) to April 1st, 2016 (date of talk), with trends analyzed up to 2017.
## Theses & Positions
- Current food system trends predict a devastating future characterized by lost farmers, even if local food production seems stable.
- The economic contribution of farms is disproportionately high: farms contribute **60% more** of economic output locally than larger farms.
- The decline in farmers is a "fundamental hemorrhaging of the lifeblood of our food system."
- The food system requires a radical, scalable intervention—a **national farmer incubator**—to reverse the trend of farmer attrition.
- Consumers must move beyond "voting with our fork" and engage in systemic political action ("vote with our vote").
## Concepts & Definitions
- **Food System Collapse:** Conceptualized as a loss of farmers rather than just lost crops.
- **Basic Concept of Ecology (Aldo Leopold Quote):** *"that land is to be loved and respected is an extension of ethics."*
- **National Farmer Incubator:** Proposed scalable model to address demographic-level change by supporting new farmers.
- **Voting with our vote:** Supporting policies at federal, state, and local levels to improve the food system and support farmers.
## Mechanisms & Processes
- **Economic Contribution Measurement:** Comparing local farm output to larger farm output using University of Minnesota Extension data.
- **Industry Concentration Risk:** High concentration (6% of farmers producing 66% of output in 2012) creates vulnerability to single stressors (pathogen, pest, temperature change, bio-terrorism).
- **Scalability Model (Fast Food Analogy):** Using the fast-food franchise model to propose a chapter-based system for the incubator, allowing a core playbook contextualized for local differences (Minnesota vs. Texas vs. California).
- **Incubator Function:** Must streamline financial investment (buying land, equipment, seeds) and create new career pathways for those entering farming.
## Timeline & Sequence
- **June 20th, 2012:** The day the speaker witnessed the devastation (ice instead of crops) and was nearly ready to quit.
- **Between 2007 and 2012:** Period during which America lost **95,000 farmers** and only gained **1,300** under age 35.
- **2012 (data):** When 6% of farmers produced 66% of agricultural output in America.
- **2012 (CDC data):** Diabetes cost America **$245 billion** in one year.
- **2012 to 2017:** Period during which **10% of American farmland** is projected to change hands.
## Named Entities
- **University of Minnesota Extension:** Source for economic contribution statistics.
- **USDA's agricultural census:** Source for farmer loss and farmland change data.
- **Denali National Park, Death Valley National Park, and Yosemite National Park:** Used as a comparative measure for the acreage of farmland changing hands.
- **National Young Farmers Coalition:** Group associated with the policy proposal *"Farming is a public service."*
## Numbers & Data
- **63 days:** Time until the speaker realized the severity of the issue after passing the final corner.
- **June 20th, 2012:** Date of the profound realization regarding the farm's state.
- **April 1st, 2016:** Date the speaker gave the talk.
- **60%:** Percentage by which local farms contribute more to the local economy than larger farms.
- **Average American farmer age:** **58.3**.
- **33%:** Percentage of American farmers older than 65.
- **10%:** Proportion of American farmland expected to change hands between 2012 and 2017.
- **91.5 million acres:** Area of farmland equivalent to 10% of American farmland.
- **19%:** Poverty rate in rural America (USDA statistic).
- **245 billion dollars:** Cost of diabetes to America in 2012 (CDC statistic).
- **6%:** Percentage of farmers responsible for 66% of agricultural output in 2012.
- **95,000:** Number of farmers lost between 2007 and 2012.
- **1,300:** Number of farmers gained under the age of 35 between 2007 and 2012.
- **90,000:** Projected number of new farmers if 10% of available land is captured.
- **220,000:** Target number of new farmers if 25% of available land is captured.
## Examples & Cases
- **The Farm Scene:** Passing the final corner of the gravel drive, expecting thriving crops (sunflowers, kale, tomatoes, greens) but finding only "tiny, little, slowly melting pellets of ice."
- **The Community Impact:** When only one farmer supports an entire county, local services like schools, grocery stores, and post offices close.
- **The Commodity Effect:** Concentrated food systems lead to cheaper processed goods (chips and soda) being prioritized in stores over healthier options (fresh vegetables).
- **Rob's Story:** A specific example of a new farmer: Rob, who came two years prior, was given a quarter-acre lease to grow small grains, allowing him to manage on a "college student's budget."
## Tools, Tech & Products
- **National Farmer Incubator:** The proposed structural tool/model to support new farmers.
- **Chapter-based system:** Proposed decentralized operating structure for the incubator.
## References Cited
- **University of Minnesota Extension:** Source for local economic impact data.
- **USDA's agricultural census:** Source for farmer loss and farmland transfer statistics.
- **Aldo Leopold quote:** Philosophical concept defining the connection between land, community, and ethics.
- **CDC:** Source for diabetes cost data in 2012.
## Trade-offs & Alternatives
- **Economic efficiency (Status Quo):** Highly concentrated farming leads to cheaper commodity foods but creates systemic risk.
- **Alternative:** Decentralized, diverse farming network (incubator) leading to "right-sized prosperity" and resilience against shocks.
- **Sustainability Concept Evolution:** Moving from the early concept of *"planting a tree in your backyard"* to modern agreements involving renewable energy.
## Counterarguments & Caveats
- Proponents of the current model argue that the concentration of farming is *"the most economically efficient way to produce food."*
## Methodology
- Utilizing quantifiable data from USDA and CDC to map systemic decline.
- Employing an analogy (fast food model) to design a solution for decentralized structural change.
- Using personal narrative (the farm crisis) to establish emotional stakes and urgent motivation.
## Conclusions & Recommendations
- **Goal:** Reverse the loss of farmers and revitalize rural America.
- **Primary Recommendation:** Establish a **national farmer incubator** to address demographic change.
- **Two Core Actions for Incubator:**
1. Streamline investment for new farmers (accessing finance for land, equipment, seeds).
2. Create formal career pathways for farming (K-12, vocational, community college).
- **Societal Action:** Implementing policies at all levels (federal, state, local) and ensuring every individual is *"educated and engaged and active in our food system."*
## Implications & Consequences
- **If failure continues:** Continued hemorrhaging leads to failing rural infrastructure (school closures, store closures) and increased public health crises (diabetes).
- **If successful:** Reaching 220,000 new farmers would create a diverse, resilient food system, re-populating rural America and generating local prosperity.
## Verbatim Moments
- *"And just in their place is nothing but tiny, little, slowly melting pellets of ice."*
- *"I do not see a bright future. I see a landscape that is devastated, but not in lost crops - in lost farmers."*
- *"that land is to be loved and respected is an extension of ethics."*
- *"a fundamental hemorrhaging of the lifeblood of our food system."*
- *"The average age of a farmer in America is 58.3."*
- *"10% of American farmland is equal to Denali National Park, Death Valley National Park, and Yosemite National Park combined, times ten."*
- *"we end up in rural America with a poverty rate of 19%."*
- *"We must go more than vote with our fork, do more than vote with our fork."*
- *"What's next? What are the big ideas that are going to confront the grand challenges that we're facing?"*
- *"How do we get from one Rob to thousands of Robs?"*
- *"What if we capture 10% of that available land? ... And we would fill in this hole we've dug ourselves in for the last couple of years."*
- *"Number one: we can all buy local. ... And finally, one thing we all must do... we all have a shared responsibility to our shared food system."*