Familiarity Breeds Liking | Luis Enrique Loria | TEDxUniversityOfAberdeen
The speaker argues that while technology advances the bus industry, public value remains undervalued unless people actively experience the improvements. Using the Aberdeen hydrogen bus project as evidence, the speaker shows that positive experience drives adoption, causing a "green snowball effect" necessary to overcome initial skepticism. The core message is that understanding what people value requires exposing them to the technology in question.
## Speakers & Context
- Speaker: Unnamed individual; has a personal love for buses.
- Context: Presented at a major international conference in Aberdeen about the future of bus services, attended by major global bus operators and industry leaders.
- Initial anecdote: Friends made fun of speaker's bus enthusiasm after the last Christmas, evidenced by pictures of buses with red hearts.
- Preparation anecdote: A colleague questioned if the speaker "actually love buses"; speaker clarified the difference between "love" and being "in love with buses."
## Theses & Positions
- The bus user's demand/need is completely absent from industry discussions concerning low-emission bus implementation, suggesting a failure to account for public value.
- The public's valuation of low-emission transport is not self-evident and requires research to uncover.
- The progression of buses shows a technological evolution (Wi-Fi, screens, comfort) over the past 100 years, yet diesel remains the primary power source.
- The combustion of diesel produces two sets of emissions: global greenhouse gases (causing climate change) and local pollutants that degrade air quality.
- Simply knowing what people value is insufficient; understanding what people value requires them to *experience* it (e.g., the hydrogen buses).
## Concepts & Definitions
- **Low emission buses/Low emission technology:** Buses that reduce harmful pollutants.
- **Green snowball effect:** The concept that positive exposure to green technology (like hydrogen buses) can lead to increasing acceptance and adoption.
- **Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE):** An economic tool used to value what people care about regarding service attributes (e.g., frequency, punctuality, emissions reduction).
- **Green mindset:** The disposition towards a greener future that can be influenced by experience.
## Mechanisms & Processes
- **Bus Service Evolution:** Progression from a 1905 London Route 11 to a 1950s bus, and now to modern services featuring Wi-Fi and screens.
- **Diesel Pollution Mechanism:** Combustion of diesel produces nitrogen dioxide ($\text{NO}_2$) and particulate matter (PM), pollutants that degrade local air quality.
- **Data Collection for Value Assessment:** Setting up the DCE by going to the streets to ask people about their preferences while using a survey instrument on an iPad.
- **Modeling Value:** Using econometrics on collected data to construct a model quantifying what the public values in different service types (diesel vs. hydrogen).
## Timeline & Sequence
- **1905:** Picture of a bus on London's Route 11 (Hammersmith to Liverpool Street).
- **1950s:** Picture of a bus serving the same Route 11 (Hammersmith to Liverpool Street).
- **Past 100 years:** Continued use of buses on the same routes.
- **Over 150 years:** Duration of using buses for transport purposes.
- **Two years ago:** Introduction of ten hydrogen buses in Aberdeen as part of a three-year program.
- **During the 8 weeks in November and December:** Time spent gathering interview data in Scotland.
## Named Entities
- Aberdeen: Location of the international conference and the hydrogen bus fleet.
- London: Location of famed routes like Route 11 and Oxford Street.
- Union Street: Famous street in Scotland, consistently ranked among the top five most polluted streets nationwide.
- Oxford Street: Famous shopping street in London, cited as one of the most polluted streets in the world.
- Costa Rica: Origin of the speaker's interview team.
## Numbers & Data
- Age/Years of service for bus routes: **1905** (Route 11); **1950s** (Route 11); over **70 years** (Route 11 service length).
- Number of polluting routes using Union Street daily: over **30 routes**.
- Health Risk Data: $\text{NO}_2$ and PM cause health risks and are linked to premature death through studies.
- Current low uptake: less than **one percent** of UK buses have low emission technology.
- Hydrogen fleet size: **ten** buses introduced.
- Duration of field interviews: **eight weeks** (in November and December).
- Time period for historical comparison: **150 years** (for diesel power).
## Examples & Cases
- **Bus route consistency:** London's Route 11, running from Hammersmith to Liverpool Street, served consistently from 1905 through the 1950s and currently.
- **Pollution Hotspot:** Union Street, cited as having some of Scotland's worst air quality, showing red/orange/green pollution concentration maps.
- **Extreme Pollution Example:** Oxford Street, London, noted as the most polluted street in the world, despite being a tourist/shopping area with limited industry nearby.
- **Hydrogen Bus Opposition:** Initial opposition in Aberdeen citing cost ("£1 million per bus") and mechanical issues (breaking down, no spare parts, requiring parts from Germany or Sweden).
- **DCE Findings (Diesel users):** Prefer services that are cheaper, more frequent, more comfortable, and more punctual, *and* value reduced local air pollution ($\text{NO}_2$, PM).
- **DCE Findings (Hydrogen users):** Prefer services that are cheaper, more punctual, more frequent, more comfortable, *and* value both local air pollution reduction *and* greenhouse gas reduction.
## Tools, Tech & Products
- **Hydrogen Buses:** Example of green technology used in Aberdeen; hardware and buses introduced.
- **iPad:** Used as the survey instrument platform for gathering interview data.
- **Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE):** Economic modeling tool used to quantify public valuation of service attributes.
- **Econometrics:** The statistical method used to run the simulation model.
## References Cited
- No external books, papers, or prior speakers were cited by formal reference, only internal observations (e.g., pollution maps, historical bus routes).
## Trade-offs & Alternatives
- **Diesel Power vs. Green Tech:** Trade-off between established, globally supported diesel infrastructure (supply chains, expertise) and the uncertain, expensive, but greener alternative (hydrogen buses).
- **Pollutant Focus:** Trade-off between focusing only on global greenhouse gases ($\text{CO}_2$) versus accounting for local pollutants ($\text{NO}_2$, PM).
- **Systemic Approach vs. Isolated Efforts:** Contrast between implementing a holistic, "one strategy" across all local governments versus small, isolated "proof of concept" schemes.
## Counterarguments & Caveats
- **Initial skepticism:** Early opposition to hydrogen buses focused on high cost and mechanical unreliability.
- **Initial Assumption:** Initial assumption that operators and government would drive the change, ignoring the user perspective.
- **Systemic Hurdle:** The primary hurdle remains the "uncertainty" surrounding technology, supply chain development, public perception, and funding mechanisms.
## Methodology
- **Observational Studies:** Observing historical bus routes and current pollution levels (e.g., mapping $\text{NO}_2$ across UK cities).
- **Panel Discussions:** Observing the debate among bus operators and government officials at the international conference.
- **Field Research:** Conducting interviews in Aberdeen over eight weeks to gather qualitative data on user experience.
- **Quantitative Modeling:** Utilizing a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) and econometric modeling to assign numerical values to non-quantifiable preferences (like "cleaner air").
## Conclusions & Recommendations
- Bus operators must shift focus from technology implementation to understanding and accommodating what the users actually value.
- Governments and operators should adopt a model where initial green introductions (like hydrogen buses) generate positive user experience, leading to a self-sustaining "green snowball effect."
- The immediate recommendation is for authorities to leverage user experience to overcome funding and uncertainty barriers.
## Implications & Consequences
- The failure to account for user value means that current policy efforts remain "isolated efforts" rather than integral parts of a strategic transformation.
- Failure to address local air quality pollution (PM, $\text{NO}_2$) will continue to result in public health crises, even if climate goals are met.
- The emotional/experiential aspect of technology adoption ("the green mindset") is as critical as the technical specs.
## Verbatim Moments
- *"I like buses in fact my friends make fun of me because of that..."*
- *"There is a difference in that [love] and [being in love with buses]." *
- *"in this blaming game there was no mention of the bus users themselves what they want what they need what they demand out of it service"*
- *"do you think people actually value if they're using a low emission bus"* (Asked to the panel)
- *"they are still powered by diesel"* (Describing modern buses)
- *"those are the emissions that degrade the local environment the local air quality"*
- *"Oxford Street is the most polluted streets in the world"*
- *"we can test for differences between the two of them"* (Comparing hydrogen vs. diesel user value)
- *"the diesel people feel that they're missing out on something"*
- *"I how can i said in scottish the hydro bows nine i goodnight but are fine"*