Making change in turbulent times | Henry Azubuike Ojuor | TEDxESCP London
Edward Lawrence, a mathematician and climate scientist, argues that catastrophic natural events like Hurricane Katrina suggest human or small-scale forces, not just Nature, can be at play. He demonstrates this by showing that a tiny initial change in a weather model can lead to massive, transformative outcomes, advising society to leverage small, coordinated actions to effect large societal change. ## Speakers & Context - Speaker is a mathematician/climate scientist, shares personal experience as a migrant from Africa. - Addresses the audience concerning contemporary societal turbulence, divisive rhetoric, and the issue of migration. ## Theses & Positions - Major historical disasters like Hurricane Katrina suggest catastrophic events might be triggered by forces smaller than perceived (e.g., butterfly effect). - Society requires small actions at scale to create massive positive transformations. - The core issue facing society is not the existence of migration, but the inability to balance it; the narrative framing around migration is deeply flawed. - The goal of action is not to achieve large-scale consequences, but rather to "touch just one Soul," suggesting micro-level impact is sufficient. ## Concepts & Definitions - **Butterfly Effect:** The concept popularized by Edward Lawrence, suggesting minute changes (like a butterfly's wing flap) can lead to massive, unpredictable outcomes. - **Social Contract:** A concept in the UK where 62% of respondents indicated feeling it was broken as of a May 2023 study. - **Migration:** A process described as nearly impossible to stop, requiring a method to "balance it." - **Market-based Innovation:** The proposed mechanism for supporting communities in developing regions to address economic migration challenges. ## Mechanisms & Processes - **The Butterfly Effect Mechanism:** Modifying a data range by three decimal points in a weather model caused a complete transformation of the two-month data outcome. - **Contribution Model:** In Lagos/Sagal, the team implemented a system monitoring soil/crop health in real time, complemented by a solar-powered tricycle, allowing farmers to preserve harvests and transport goods up to 130 km away. - **Wealth Creation:** The implemented system increased farmers' income by almost five times and generated about 30 jobs paying above the national minimum wage. ## Named Entities - **Edward Lawrence:** Award-winning mathematician and climate scientist who popularized the butterfly effect. - **Hurricane Katrina:** Single most expensive natural disaster in US history, occurring in August 2005, causing $160 billion in damage and displacing thousands in New Orleans. - **UK:** The location where the social contract study was conducted (May 2023). - **Sagal:** A coastal farmer region in Ghana, mentioned as a site for the successful pilot initiative. - **NSSA:** Mentioned as a major protest in Nigeria concerning police brutality. ## Numbers & Data - Hurricane Katrina damage: **$160 billion**. - Proportion of New Orleans underwater post-Katrina: **80%**. - Reduction in data range by Edward Lawrence: **three decimal points**. - Period of data collection transforming due to minute change: **two months**. - Respondents in the UK social contract study: **over 2,000**. - Percentage feeling the UK social contract is broken: **62%**. - Percentage saying the social contract is *not* broken: **8%**. - Number of people who died from conflict violence annually: **500,000 and more**. - Number of young people who died when their boat capsized in the Mediterranean: **60**. - Distance goods could be transported from the pilot project: **130 km**. - Increase in farmer income from the intervention: **almost five times**. - Number of jobs created in the pilot: **about 30**. ## Examples & Cases - **Hurricane Katrina:** The example of a catastrophic natural disaster potentially having non-natural triggers. - **The UK Social Contract:** The finding that 62% felt the contract was broken, supported by anecdotal examples of being pushed off trains. - **Migration Struggle (Nigeria):** Personal account citing young activists during the NSSA protests whose struggles were not validated by the elder population. - **Ghanaian Pilot Project:** Utilizing solar-powered tricycles and soil monitoring to elevate farming productivity, moving beyond the waiting period for large institutional movement. ## Tools, Tech & Products - **Weather Program Model:** Edward Lawrence's initial model used for the butterfly effect demonstration. - **Solar-powered tricycle:** Deployed in the Ghanaian pilot project to transport harvested goods. ## References Cited - **Study:** A study conducted in the UK in **May 2023** regarding the social contract. - **Concept:** The **butterfly effect** popularized by Edward Lawrence. ## Counterarguments & Caveats - The notion that the world faces constant armed conflict everywhere. - Initial belief that personal economic gain (quick jumping on "brain drain") was the primary driver for migration efforts. ## Methodology - **Data Science:** Analyzing and modifying data ranges within complex atmospheric models. - **Sociological Survey:** Conducting a structured poll asking citizens about the state of the social contract. - **Market Intervention:** Designing a localized, scalable, and sustainable market solution utilizing existing local resources (solar power, local soil knowledge) to create economic opportunity. ## Conclusions & Recommendations - **First Step:** Recognize the power that you have through small actions. - **Second Step:** Remember that small actions are typically not small. - **Actions Recommended:** Standing up for beliefs, taking a stand against injustice, being more welcoming to differences, and practicing gratitude/empathy towards hosts. - **Primary Goal:** To ensure that even if the consequence isn't massive, the action touches "just one Soul." ## Implications & Consequences - Small, local, sustainable innovations can directly counter macro-level economic/social crises (like failing agricultural markets). - The mindset shift in the local population from seeing only migration as an option to recognizing local contribution is the most significant outcome. ## Verbatim Moments - *"what if Oran Katrina which is a catastrophic display of Nature's destructive Powers is actually triggered by a Creator not even as big as my P The Humble butterfly"* - *"the idea of the butterfly effect came to become popularized when Lawrence had suggested that the flap of a butterfli Wings could leave with to today"* - *"we desperately need small actions that can transform Society scale"* - *"62% of respondents said yes [that the social contract is broken] compared to 8% that said no"* - *"it's like they would push me back into the train"* - *"i can relate to them because i i understand what it feels like to desperately want to cling to Hope by all means"* - *"how am i going to contribute to Africa if Nigeria ends me first"* - *"The goal is not to have far reaching consequences at scale because if your small action is able to touch just one Soul it would have been wor it"*