Geography of Jobs | Tom Stellman | TEDxBrookings
The speaker, working in economic development, argues that the 2007-2009 recession fundamentally changed the structure of the labor market, necessitating that communities and individuals embrace lifelong learning and structural flexibility. This is evidenced by the speaker mapping job losses and recovery across various metros, revealing enduring gaps and skill mismatches even years after the official end of the recession. Key recommendations include prioritizing talent retention, development, and attraction at the community level. ## Speakers & Context - Speaker works in the economic development business. - Provides services to communities across the country aiming to grow economies or find sustainable methods to build their tax base. - Goal of economic development: creating good-paying jobs within a community so it can fund public services (streets, libraries, parks). - The speaker discusses the lasting impact of the 2007-2009 recession on the labor market. ## Theses & Positions - The current job market requires flexibility, restructuring, and continuous adaptation from all parties involved (companies, job seekers, communities). - The impact of the 2007-2009 recession extends beyond mere job losses, fundamentally altering the *structure* of available jobs. - Success in the new job geography demands that job seekers see themselves as lifelong learners. - Communities must treat talent retention, talent development, and talent attraction as top strategic priorities. ## Concepts & Definitions - **Job (Urban Dictionary):** The means by which at least 30% of your life is stolen from you to enrich the owners of a company making useless stuff. - **Job (Merriam-Webster):** The work that a person does regularly in order to earn money. - **Job (Bureau of Labor Statistics definition):** The technical definition used by the government; relates to employment/unemployment statistics (e.g., "170,000 jobs created in the economy last month"). - **Low-wage jobs:** Led the recovery following the recession. - **High-wage jobs and Middle-wage jobs:** Lagged behind the low-wage recovery rate. ## Mechanisms & Processes - **Economic Development Strategy:** Growing local economies or finding sustainable ways to build the tax base. - **Mapping Job Changes:** Using color-coded maps to visualize job movement in metros (Red bubble = lost jobs in last 12 months; Blue bubble = gained jobs in last 12 months). - **Forecasting:** Animating the job map over time to show pre-, during, and post-recession trends. - **Recovery Analysis:** Comparing job losses and recovery rates across different historic recessions (e.g., 1974-1976 vs. 2007-2009). ## Timeline & Sequence - **1974–1976 Recession:** Lost approximately two and a half to three percent of jobs; lasted about two years. - **1980 Recession:** Lost about 1%; lasted for one year, followed by a recession in 1981-1983. - **1990–1993 Recession:** Relatively shallow but a little bit longer. - **2001–2005 Recession (Dot-com recession):** Shallow but long. - **2007-2009 Recession:** Lost over 6% of employment base; took six and a half years to recover those jobs (recovering through May of 2014). - **Data Point (December 2007):** US unemployment dropped to **5.1%**. - **Current Status (Post-Recession):** Still impacted by recessionary effects; **120 metros** have not recovered the jobs lost during the recession. ## Named Entities - **Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):** Source for the technical job definition used by the government. - **Detroit:** Mentioned as an area showing significant impact during the recession mapping. - **Phoenix:** Mentioned in relation to the popping housing bubble during the recession mapping. ## Numbers & Data - Minimum job loss percentage for 2007-2009: **over 6%** of employment base. - Time to recover 2007-2009 job losses: **six and a half years**. - Specific recession recovery date point: **May of 2014**. - Historical unemployment data point: **5.1%** (December 2007). - Number of unrecovered metros: **120**. - Housing bubble popping observation period: Shown during **2008** mapping segment. ## Examples & Cases - **Job Market Comparison:** Comparing job loss rates across the 1974-76, 1980, 1990-93, 2001-05, and 2007-09 recessions. - **Geographic Mapping:** The creation and visualization of the "geography of jobs" map to track 12-month rolling job gains/losses in specific metros. - **Skills Gap Example:** Expanding employers reporting difficulty finding certain skills, leading to unfilled jobs. - **Individual Career Adjustment:** Suggestion for job seekers to consider contracting or working for larger companies to gain experience. ## Tools, Tech & Products - **Google:** Used by speaker to search for the definition of "job." - **Geography of Jobs:** A visual tool created by the speaker team that animates job changes in metros over time. ## Counterarguments & Caveats - The recession impact is described as lasting beyond the official end date, meaning the job market is not fully recovered, despite overall US recovery. - The bubble visualizations are based on a **12-month rolling jobs number**. - The recovery shown in the "geography of recovery" data starts in **December of 2007** but is not a direct playout of the job map. ## Conclusions & Recommendations - Communities must adopt strategies centered on talent retention, talent development, and talent attraction to succeed in the new job market. - Individuals must adopt the mindset of a lifelong learner to succeed as the market continues to change. - Businesses/Companies must be prepared to be flexible, restructure, automate, or pay more to acquire necessary skills. ## Implications & Consequences - The economic shock fundamentally changed the *kind* of jobs created, not just the number. - Failure to adapt means communities will not capture the full benefits of the recovery cycle. ## Verbatim Moments - *"the means by which at least 30% of your life is stolen from you to enrich the owners of a company making useless stuff"* (Urban Dictionary definition). - *"this is the definition that they're using in December of 2007"* (BLS definition). - *"I'm here to tell you that it's still with us and it's impacting our labor market to this day."* - *"the more you want things to say the same the more that you're gonna have to be willing to change"* (Favorite quote). - *"you're gonna have to see yourself as a lifelong learner because the market is going to continue to change"* (Advice for job seekers). - *"you're gonna have to acknowledge that this is a new jobs market and you're gonna have to embrace as one of your top strategies talent retention talent development and talent attraction"* (Advice for communities).