Flight to the Future | TEDxWakeForestU 2021 | Sam Bousfield | TEDxWakeForestU
The speaker argues that the future of transportation is airborne, evolving from driving-and-flying vehicles like the Switchblade to VTOL air taxis, culminating in anti-gravity flight. This transition promises to drastically cut travel times and increase accessibility by allowing straight, point-to-point travel across "sky layers." The speaker advises that realizing this future requires a new, standardized training methodology to manage the increased air traffic load.
## Speakers & Context
- Presenter: An individual detailing the evolution of transportation technology.
- Context: Discussion framed by historical precedents (15th century, Ancient Egypt, 1950s cartoons) leading toward a future air travel system.
## Theses & Positions
- The future of transportation is in the air, as there is more space for traffic aloft than on the ground.
- Air layers of traffic are possible overhead, operating without conventional traffic control elements like stop signs, traffic lights, or construction zones.
- The evolution follows a model: Start (driving and flying), Middle (VTOL air taxis), and End (anti-gravity technology).
- The future system must operate as easily or more easily than driving a car, involving simple destination input.
- The future is something that humans will actively create.
## Concepts & Definitions
- **Sky Layers:** A concept allowing for multiple, non-conflicting layers of air traffic above ground.
- **Dream Future:** Concepts of the future envisioned by artists, exemplified by flying cars.
- **Direct Point-to-Point Travel:** A travel capability allowing direct routing between two locations without detours caused by ground infrastructure like highways.
- **Paradigm Shift:** The transformation represented by vehicles that function effectively in both driving and flying modes (e.g., the Switchblade).
- **Language of Flight:** A specific lexicon and jargon, distinct from common language, that requires specialized training to master.
## Mechanisms & Processes
- **Trajectory Dreaming:** The process of tracing future concepts from ancient art (flying chariots) through to modern technological predictions (flying cars).
- **Vehicle Transition Modeling:** Outlining the stages of transportation change:
1. **Start:** Vehicles that can both drive and fly (using existing roads/airports).
2. **Middle:** VTOL air taxis, requiring decades of infrastructure build-out.
3. **End:** Anti-gravity flight.
- **Airframe Transformation (Switchblade):** A mechanical process initiated by a button push, involving the tail unfurling and clamshell doors opening to deploy wings.
- **Flight Control System (Fly by Wire):** Electronic direction of flight via a joystick or control wheel, eliminating mechanical links to the wings or tail.
- **Simulator Use:** A specialized training process utilizing three projectors and digital dashboards to replicate real flight scenarios for repeatable practice.
- **Traffic Management in Sky Layers:** Operating without stop signs, traffic lights, or construction.
## Timeline & Sequence
- **Ancient times:** Depiction of flying chariots in Ancient Egypt.
- **15th century:** Leonardo da Vinci designed flying concepts.
- **1950s:** The Jetsons cartoon featured flying cars.
- **Present day:** Focus on developing the "starting point" technology (drive/fly).
- **Short to middle game:** Handled by driving-and-flying cars.
- **Middle step:** The VTOL transition, projected to take decades to establish infrastructure.
- **Foreseeable end game:** Arrival of anti-gravity technology.
## Named Entities
- **Leonardo da Vinci:** Figure who conceived flying designs in the 15th century.
- **Ancient Egypt:** Civilization known for depicting flying chariots.
- **The Jetsons:** A 1950s cartoon comedy featuring flying cars.
- **Samson:** Manufacturer developing and selling flying cars (Switchblade).
- **FAA (Federal Aviation Administration):** Regulatory body for aviation, responsible for pilot licensing and training improvements.
- **STARR WAR, STAR TREK:** Franchise/media sources used as references for ideal future functionality (quickest/safest route).
## Tools, Tech & Products
- **Flying cars:** The overall vehicle category envisioned for future transport.
- **Switchblade:** Specific vehicle designed to operate high-performance in both driving and flying modes.
- **VTOL air taxis:** A specific vehicle category expected to dominate the middle phase of transition.
- **Anti-gravity technology:** The ultimate, theorized capability for the final stage of transport.
- **Fly by wire controls:** Electronic system used to direct flight without mechanical linkages.
- **Electric hybrid drive system:** The power source implemented in the Switchblade.
- **Flight simulators:** Training equipment featuring digital dashboards, instruments, and three projectors for realistic practice.
- **Digital dashboard and instruments:** Feature found on the Samson flight simulator setup.
- **Three projectors:** Equipment used in the flight simulator setup to provide 180-degree visuals.
## Numbers & Data
- **15th century:** Period when Leonardo da Vinci was active.
- **1950s:** Decade of The Jetsons cartoon.
- **2.5 million:** Number of mega commuters estimated to drive two hours each way in the U.S.
- **18 million:** Number of regional leisure and business travelers annually in the U.S.
- **10 hours:** Average one-way trip duration for regional travelers.
- **65 percent:** Potential time savings using a flying car for regional travelers.
- **90 billion dollars:** Estimated monetary savings in hourly wages lost in travel for the business world.
- **500 miles:** Distance achievable in two and a half hours by flying car.
- **Half a million dollars:** Price point cited for a new airplane, highlighting affordability issues.
- **15 minutes:** Time duration within which most people in the U.S. live of an airport.
- **5,000:** Count of public use airports in the U.S.
- **6 miles:** Distance range within which most public use airports are located from the city they serve.
- **37:** Count of countries internationally where the Switchblade has reservation holders.
- **50:** Count of states in America with reservation holders.
- **200 miles per hour:** Maximum flight speed rating of the Switchblade.
- **20 to thirty thousand feet:** Altitude range typically flown by commercial jets.
- **13 years:** Duration Samson spent on development of their current technology.
- **70%:** Dropout rate for student pilots cited as unacceptable.
- **20 hours:** Ground training required for private pilot certification.
- **40 hours:** In-air flight training required for private pilot certification.
## Claims & Theses
- The future society of The Jetsons traveled by air.
- Air layers of traffic are possible without stop signs, traffic lights, or construction.
- The future of transportation is in the air.
- Vehicles for the initial stage will be capable of both driving and flying, like the Switchblade.
- VTOL air taxis will constitute the middle phase of the transition over many decades.
- Once anti-gravity technology is realized, propellers and noise will be eliminated, marking the endgame.
- The system must be as simple as punching in a destination and engaging.
- Air traffic control (ATC) will require an upgrade to manage increased traffic volume.
- Human controllers will handle exceptions, leaving automated systems to manage the routine 90% of traffic.
- Flying cars significantly reduce travel time and fuel usage by enabling direct point-to-point travel.
- The Switchblade was explicitly designed for high performance in *both* modes, avoiding mediocrity.
- The journey somewhere should be just as enjoyable as the destination.
## Mechanisms & Processes
- **Airframe Transformation (Switchblade):** The process involves activating a mechanism to unfurl the tail and open clamshell doors to deploy wings.
- **Pilot Training Curriculum Development:** Creating a structured, modular program that breaks down complex skills into small, manageable, and sequentially taught steps.
- **Simulator Use:** Utilizing specialized units to allow pilots to repeatedly practice varied scenarios until mastery before flying in actual aircraft.
- **Ground to Air Transition:** The physical process of storing the vehicle, driving to an airport, and activating the mechanism to transition wings/tail into the flight configuration.
## Trade-offs & Alternatives
- **Ground Traffic to Air Traffic:** The necessary shift due to the greater space availability overhead.
- **Switchblade vs. Generic Vehicles:** The Switchblade is designed to perform at a high level in *both* driving and flying, unlike models that are merely "mediocre."
- **Human Control vs. Automated Control:** Human controllers will manage exceptions, while computers manage the vast majority of routine traffic in designated aerial corridors.
- **Current Airport Network:** The contrast between 500 airports with scheduled service and the 5,000 public-use airports, suggesting wider connectivity via personal aircraft.
## Counterarguments & Caveats
- **Availability of Infrastructure:** Currently, there are no safe landing spots at common public locations like grocery stores, hotels, or dentist offices.
- **Mediocrity Concern:** The misconception that flying cars must be compromises between car and plane capabilities, which the Switchblade counters.
## Methodology
- **Statistical Analysis:** Used to project the economic benefit of air travel by calculating the savings from reduced travel time for the business world.
- **Engineering Design:** Applied to the Switchblade, incorporating recyclable materials and non-toxic manufacturing processes.
- **Pilot Training Curriculum Development:** Methodology focusing on deconstructing the "language of flight" and building skills in an orderly fashion.
## Implications & Consequences
- **Economic Impact:** The ability to bypass traffic congestion could save the global business world $90 billion by saving lost wages.
- **Connectivity:** The sheer number of public-use airports suggests a much higher potential reach for personal air travel than current scheduled commercial flights.
- **Environmental Benefit:** Samson’s manufacturing process is non-toxic and incorporates recyclable materials.
## Open Questions
- The ultimate physical appearance of future, anti-gravity transportation.
- The precise management protocols for the initial high volume of air traffic before the system reaches equilibrium.
## Verbatim Moments
- *"artists dream the future and the future they dream about has flying cars"*
- *"The amazing thing is that he was able to look into the future and see that we would fly"*
- *"in the sky layers upon layers of traffic are possible with no stop signs no traffic lights and no construction to slow you down and you can travel into straight lines which is the shortest distance between any two points"*
- *"There are over two and a half million mega commuters driving two hours each way to work"*
- *"it would have to be safe safe to drive safe to fly and a parachute for the whole vehicle might not be a bad idea"*
- *"the foreseesable end game and high point of the conversion of transportation into the skies"*
- *"if you're a star trek fan the computer would take you on the quickest and safest route to your destination"*
- *"we will probably need to project highways in the sky little boxes that you would help fly through as to keep you safe and assigned by computers who monitor traffic volumes and destinations being requested"*
- *"The hardest part is learning the language"*
- *"the future is what we create"*