Flight to the Future | TEDxWakeForestU 2021 | Sam Bousfield | TEDxWakeForestU
## People - Leonardo da Vinci + architect/dreamer + depicted flying designs in the 15th century. - Ancient Egyptians + civilization + depicted flying chariots. ## Organizations - FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) + regulatory body for aviation + responsible for pilot licensing and training improvements. - Samson + manufacturer + develops and sells flying cars (Switchblade). ## Tools, Tech & Products - Flying cars + vehicle category + potential future of transportation. - Leonardo da Vinci's designs + early concept + utilized in the 15th century. - Flying chariots + depiction + found in ancient Egyptian art. - Jetsons + 1950s cartoon comedy + featured flying cars as major transportation. - Escalators, cell phones, talking computers + technology + already invented and put into production. - Switchblade + vehicle + designed to drive and fly, using existing infrastructure. - Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) air taxis + vehicle category + potential middle phase of transition. - Anti-gravity technology + concept + theorized future vehicle capability. - Air traffic control (ATC) + system + will need an upgrade to handle increased traffic. - Electric hybrid drive system + technology + implemented in the Switchblade. - Fly by wire controls + system/technology + directs flight electronically without mechanical links. - Flight simulators + training tool + used by the FAA and by Samson. - Digital dashboard and instruments + feature + found on the Samson flight simulator setup. - Three projectors + equipment + provide 180 degree visuals in the simulator. ## Concepts & Definitions - The Dream Future + concept + what artists envision, exemplified by flying cars. - Sky Layers + description + allows for multiple layers of traffic above ground. - Start/Middle/End + model + applied to flying cars' evolution (starting with drive/fly, moving to VTOL, ending with anti-gravity). - Direct Point-to-Point Travel + capability + allows travel from one location to another without being diverted by highways. - Paradigm Shift + description + what the Switchblade represents in transportation. - Language of Flight + concept + described as being different from common language, requiring specific training. ## Numbers & Data - 15th century + time period + when Leonardo da Vinci was active. - 1950s + decade + when The Jetsons cartoon was set. - 2.5 million + number + of mega commuters driving two hours each way to work in the U.S. - 18 million + number + of regional leisure and business travelers annually in the U.S. - 10 hours + duration + average one-way trip for regional travelers. - 65 percent + percentage + time savings using a flying car for regional travelers. - 90 billion dollars + monetary value + savings in hourly wages lost in travel for the business world. - 500 miles + distance + distance achievable in two and a half hours by flying car. - Half a million dollars + price point + required for a new airplane, suggesting affordability issues. - 15 minutes + time duration + period within which most people in the U.S. live of an airport. - 5,000 + count + of public use airports in the U.S. - Six miles + distance range + most public use airports are within this distance of the city they serve. - 37 + count + of countries internationally where the Switchblade has reservation holders. - 50 + count + of states in America with reservation holders. - 200 miles per hour + speed rating + maximum flight speed of the Switchblade. - 20 to thirty thousand feet + altitude range + where commercial jets usually fly. - Twelve years + duration + time Samson spent on development. - 70% + percentage + dropout rate for student pilots. - 20 hours + duration + ground training required for private pilot certification. - 40 hours + duration + in-air flight training required for private pilot certification. ## Claims & Theses - The future society of the Jetsons traveled by air. - Air layers upon layers of traffic are possible with no stop signs, no traffic lights and no construction. - The future of transportation is in the air. - Vehicles that could be used at the start of this great change in transportation will drive and fly (like the Switchblade). - VTOL air taxis could form the middle phase of this transition, stretching over decades. - The large majority of vehicles would likely be of the VTOL type when enough landing places are available. - Once anti-gravity technology is invented, propellers and noise could be removed, marking the foreseeable end game. - The future transportation system would have to be as easy or easier than driving a car, involving punching in a destination and engaging. - Air traffic control will need an upgrade to handle increased traffic volume. - Human controllers will be left to handle the remaining 10 percent of traffic as exceptions. - Flying cars can significantly reduce travel time and fuel used by allowing direct point-to-point travel. - The Switchblade was designed to be high performance in both modes, not mediocre. - The Switchblade can fly up to 200 miles per hour. - The Switchblade can allow travel over construction or dense traffic. - The Switchblade allows travel on your own schedule, in one vehicle with your belongings. - The future is what we create. ## Mechanisms & Processes - Trajectory Dreaming + process + tracing future concepts from ancient depictions (e.g., flying chariots) to modern concepts. - Traffic Management in Sky Layers + process + operating without stop signs, traffic lights, or construction. - Vehicle Transition Modeling + process + outlining stages from current ground traffic to future air traffic (Start $\rightarrow$ Middle $\rightarrow$ End). - Airframe Transformation (Switchblade) + mechanical process + involves pushing a button, tail unfurling, clamshell doors opening to swing out wings. - Flight Control System (Fly by Wire) + mechanical/electronic process + pilot directs flight using a joystick or control wheel with no mechanical link to wings or tail. - Training Program Design + workflow + breaking flying into small, orderly steps, defining terms as introduced. - Simulator Use + training process + using specialized units with multiple projectors and digital dashboards to allow repeated practice of scenarios. ## Timeline & Events - Ancient times + time period + flying chariots were depicted. - 15th century + time period + Leonardo da Vinci designed flying concepts. - 1950s + time period + The Jetsons cartoon featured flying cars. - Present day + time point + current focus on improving ground to air transport. - Short to middle game + time phase + will be handled by flying cars that drive and fly. - Middle step of the VTOL transition + time period + requiring decades to establish infrastructure. - Foreseeable end game + time point + arrival of anti-gravity technology. ## Examples & Cases - Leonardo da Vinci + example + came up with flying designs in the 15th century. - Ancient Egypt + example/source + depicting flying chariots. - The Jetsons + example/source + a 1950s cartoon comedy featuring flying cars. - Wake Forest area to Charleston on the coast + travel example + flying for one hour and 15 minutes, where the car can then drive out of fog and continue. - Smithsonian's case (implied/analogy) + example + where belongings stay with you throughout the journey. ## Trade-offs & Alternatives - Ground Traffic to Air Traffic + transition considered, necessitated by space availability (more space in the air than on the ground). - Flying Car/VTOL vs. Conventional Travel + Comparison of time saved (65% time saving using flying car vs. 10-hour round trip). - Mediocre Plane/Mediocre Car vs. Switchblade + The Switchblade is designed to be high performance in *both* modes, negating the misconception. - Human Control vs. Automated Control + Human controllers handle 10% of exceptions, while computers handle 90% of routine traffic in projected sky highways. ## Counterarguments & Caveats - Modern realization vs. Technology Availability + Many advanced technologies (like flying cars) dreamed up for shows have been produced, *except* the flying car. - VTOL limitation + current issue: there are currently no safe landing places at grocery stores, hotels, the dentist's office, or any neighborhoods. - Pilot Training Difficulty + The hardest part is learning the language, not the physical act of flying. - FAA/Current Training vs. New Methods + The current 70% dropout rate for student pilots is unacceptable; new programs will fix this. ## Methodology - Statistical Analysis + method used to calculate potential savings for the business world based on travel time. - Engineering Design + process used in Samson's aircraft, incorporating recyclable materials and non-toxic manufacturing. - Pilot Training Curriculum Development + method creating a structured program broken down into small, manageable steps. ## References Cited - STARR WAR: franchise/media source + inspiration for future flying concepts. - STAR TREK: franchise/media source + used as a reference point for ideal future functionality (quickest/safest route). ## Conclusions & Recommendations - For the immediate future, flying cars (that drive and fly) will be the primary mode of transport until VTOL infrastructure is established. - The goal is for the trip somewhere to be "just as pleasurable as the destination." - To become commonplace, flying cars must be affordable, usable, practical, safe, and fun. - The FAA/industry must adopt a new training methodology: a structured program that builds skills step-by-step and explicitly teaches the "language of flight." - The future is what we create. - Recommendation: Let's create a bright and vibrant one. ## Implications & Consequences - If the future of transportation is in the air, direct air traffic routes are possible, enabling travel into straight lines (shortest distance). - Traffic congestion reduction: A 3 to 5 percent reduction in peak traffic could allow other vehicles to double their speed. - Increased connectivity: The existence of 5,000 public use airports and many within 6 miles suggests greater potential reach than current scheduled flights. ## Open Questions - What will the ideal, final form of future transportation look like? - How will the increased air traffic volume be managed initially, before the system is fully optimized? ## Verbatim Moments - "artists dream the future and the future they dream about has flying cars" - "The amazing thing is that he was able to look into the future and see that we would fly" - "In the sky layers upon layers of traffic are possible with no stop signs no traffic lights and no construction to slow you down and you can travel into straight lines which is the shortest distance between any two points" - "it could be said of almost anything in this universe including stories a building or life itself" - "the foreseesable end game and high point of the conversion of transportation into the skies" - "if you're a star trek fan the computer would take you on the quickest and safest route to your destination" - "we will probably need to project highways in the sky little boxes that you would help fly through as to keep you safe and assigned by computers who monitor traffic volumes and destinations being requested" - "there are over two and a half million mega commuters driving two hours each way to work" - "it would have to be safe safe to drive safe to fly and a parachute for the whole vehicle might not be a bad idea" - "the future is what we create"