TEDxMunich - Richard Watson
The speaker argues that historical attempts to predict the future are flawed because they rely on past experiences and faulty assumptions. Instead of forecasting, the speaker advocates for scenario planning to visualize multiple potential futures based on current uncertainties. Ultimately, the goal is for society to reach consensus on a desired path so that the present can be improved. ## Speakers & Context - Unspecified speaker, initially called a futurist after writing a book predicting changes over the next 50 years. - Setting: A presentation discussing the nature and fallibility of future prediction. ## Theses & Positions - The history of future prediction is unreliable, as numerous past predictions have failed. - Both the 1886 and 1894 predictions for London were based on extrapolating from past experience and used critically false assumptions. - Trends, which represent the unfolding of current events, do not indicate future direction or the velocity of events. - If the future is uncertain or ambiguous, there must be many possible alternative futures rather than one singular path. - The core problem of prediction is that most knowledge is derived from the past, while the most vital decisions concern the future. - The ability to agree on a desired future path would allow society to perceive the present in a vastly improved way, making the future a better place to live. - Individuals, households, corporations, and entire nations have the agency to choose and begin building the future they want. ## Concepts & Definitions - **Futurism:** The practice or field of predicting the future. - **Future Shock:** Concept describing technological change that is accelerating and causing anxiety. - **Mega Trends:** "Hotspots" on a map representing large-scale overarching changes, including globalization, localism, urbanization, volatility, debt anxiety, climate change, sustainability, and the power shift eastwards. - **Trends:** Represent the unfolding of events or dispositions but do not inform future direction or velocity. - **Counter Trends:** Anomalies or seemingly illogical combinations of events that actually clash. - **Scenario Planning:** A method for visualizing potential futures by examining the potential impact of multiple variables on long-term capital or expenditure. - **Critical Uncertainties:** Important elements whose answer remains unknown, used as axes in scenario planning (e.g., pessimism vs. optimism regarding climate change). - **Nimble:** A required quality for adapting to the future, meaning capable of rapid adaptation. ## Mechanisms & Processes - **Extrapolation from current trends:** Mechanism used by historical predictors (e.g., 1886, 1894) by assuming past relationships will continue. - **Scenario planning:** Process involving creating distinct future worlds by plotting the intersection of two or more axes of critical uncertainties. - **Wargaming/Battle Planning:** The origin of scenario planning; developed using narratives to model the potential impact of variables on long-term capital. - **Linear Forecasting:** Method used by the oil supplies company, projecting potential outcomes using simple high/low/medium lines based on identifiable trends. ## Timeline & Events - **1886:** Carl Benz made a prediction concerning worldwide automobile demand. - **1894:** An article appeared in *The Times* newspaper regarding London streets. - **1917:** *Originality* was written by T Sharper N, predicting London's future via Sir Aston Webb. - **1933:** HG Wells published *The Shape of Things to Come*, which addressed ballistic missiles from submarines. - **1945:** Arthur C Clark predicted a network of communication satellites orbiting the Earth. - **1970:** *Future Shock* by Alvin Toffler was published, highlighting rapid technological change. - **Early 1980s:** Period when US oil supplies companies made forecasts regarding oil rig demand. - **2008:** Reference point used to frame the "Morismos" scenario (pre-recession). - **6th Century:** Origin of the Indian game *Karunga*, related to scenario planning. - **1812:** Invention of the German war game *Ciel*, a precursor to modern wargaming. ## Named Entities - **Carl Benz:** Engineer who predicted worldwide demand for automobiles. - **Sir Aston Webb:** Person who predicted London's future development from the viewpoint of January 20, 1914. - **Alvin Toffler:** Author of *Future Shock*, 1970. - **Peter Ducker:** Discussed the need for portfolio careers in the 1980s. - **Warren Bennis:** Discussed the need for radical innovation in the 1960s. - **HG Wells:** Author of *The Shape of Things to Come*, 1933, regarding ballistic missiles from submarines. - **Arthur C Clark:** Person who foresaw a network of communication satellites orbiting Earth in 1945. - **James T Kirk:** Fictional character known for using a Motorola Razor cell phone. - **Friends:** Group with whom the speaker created scenarios. - **Librarians:** Group in the audience who corrected a mistake on the extinction timeline. - **Belgium:** Country mentioned in the context of potential political boundary changes (e.g., North Belgium, South Belgium). - **The Times:** Newspaper that published an article in 1894. - **Oil supplies company:** US company in the early 1980s making oil product demand forecasts. ## Organizations - **Shell:** Company mentioned as using wargaming techniques. ## Places - **London:** City whose future development was predicted in 1894; predicted streets to be buried under manure. - **English Countryside:** Location where the speaker acquired old books. - **America:** Location referenced when discussing the cost of making a cent. ## Tools, Tech & Products - **Motorola Razor cell phone:** Device used by James T Kirk in fiction. - **Kindle:** E-reader device. - **A3 paper:** Size of the doodle/map used to illustrate predicted changes over 50 years. - **Microsoft Word document:** Format noted as ineffective for visualizing complex data. ## Concepts & Definitions - **Futurism:** The practice of predicting the future. - **Project or task force management:** Organizational structure where teams are temporary, assembled for specific short-term problems, and then disassembled. - **Portfolio careers:** Concept related to the perceived need in the 1980s. - **Radical innovation:** Concept linked to the perceived necessity of the 1960s. - **Mega Trends:** "Hotspots" denoting overarching, large-scale changes (e.g., globalization, localism, urbanization, volatility, debt anxiety). - **Trends:** An unfolding of events or dispositions, but lacking information on future direction or velocity. - **Counter Trends:** Anomalous or seemingly illogical combinations of events that actually clash. - **Scenario Planning:** A method for visualizing potential futures by mapping variables (e.g., pessimism/optimism, activism/passivism) against one another. - **Critical Uncertainties:** Important unknowns used as axes in scenario planning to generate alternative future worlds. - **Process of making decisions based on the future:** A forward-thinking requirement that moves beyond simple backward extrapolation. ## Numbers & Data - **50 years:** Period covered by the speaker's initial book. - **1886:** Year of Carl Benz's automobile demand prediction. - **1 million:** Quantity of worldwide automobile demand Benz predicted. - **1894:** Year of the *Times* article regarding London. - **9 ft:** Depth to which London streets were predicted to be buried in 50 years. - **1917:** Year *Originality* was written. - **2014:** Year Sir Aston Webb predicted for London. - **120 ft:** Width of the great roads out of London predicted by Sir Aston Webb. - **97 years:** Age of the book *Originality*. - **50p:** Price of the book *Future Shock*. - **1970:** Year *Future Shock* was published. - **41 years:** Age of *Future Shock* at the time of speaking. - **1980s:** Decade associated with portfolio career discussion. - **1960s:** Decade associated with radical innovation discussion. - **1933:** Year HG Wells published *The Shape of Things to Come*. - **1945:** Year Arthur C Clark foresaw communication satellites. - **10 to 15 years:** Timeframe during which there was general consensus on the world's direction (in the 60s, 70s, or 80s). - **2 minutes and 53 seconds:** Time remaining when the speaker displayed the final chart. ## Examples & Cases - **Carl Benz's prediction:** Worldwide automobile demand would never exceed 1 million. - ***Times* article prediction:** London streets would be buried under 9 ft of horse manure within 50 years. - **Sir Aston Webb's prediction:** London would feature two great railway stations (North and South), 120 ft wide great roads with two traffic divisions, and a large belt of green fields surrounding it by 2014. - **Alvin Toffler's example:** The rapid proliferation of temporary, short-term Project or task force teams compared to permanent bureaucratic divisions. - **Past Seers' track record:** Includes Peter Ducker (1980s portfolio careers), Warren Bennis (1960s radical innovation), HG Wells (1933 ballistic missiles from submarines), Arthur C Clark (1945 satellites), and James T Kirk (Motorola Razor phone). - **Oil supplies company forecast:** Used high/low/medium lines to predict oil rig demand in the early 1980s, which failed due to misreading a short-term trend as a long-term one. - **Scenario worlds visualization:** Demonstrated four potential futures based on critical uncertainties: Morismos (individualism, pre-2008 consumerism), Personal Fortress (isolation, running to mountains), Anism (enoughness, living on less, work-life balance), and Smart Planet (unshakeable belief in science/technology). - **Extinction timeline:** Predictions of obsolescence for physical goods/services, including coins, desktop computers, free roads wallets (replaced by phones), ashtrays, landline telephones, and initially, public libraries. - **Geopolitical Example:** The recent boundary shifts concerning South Sudan and the potential division of Belgium (North Belgium/South Belgium) illustrate that national borders are fluid. ## Trade-offs & Alternatives - **Linear extrapolation vs. Scenario Planning:** Linear forecasting assumes past relationships hold; scenario planning models multiple potential outcomes based on variable combinations. - **Technological vs. Familiar Obsolescence:** Two modes of predicting change: predicting 'new stuff' (technology) versus predicting the disappearance of 'old stuff' (social/physical infrastructure). - **Strategy choice:** The choice between passively waiting for the future to happen (relying on being Nimble) or actively committing to and driving a desired future path. ## Counterarguments & Caveats - **Faulty Assumptions:** Benz assumed cars always needed a chauffeur; the *Times* assumed horse transport growth matched population growth. - **Trend Limitation:** Trends only describe what has happened or is happening; they do not dictate future direction or velocity. - **Organizational Inertia:** Most organizations are mentally closed to outside change, constrained by historical assets and worried only about the immediate 12-month financial cycle. - **Library Resilience:** Contrary to initial assumptions, the evidence suggests libraries often perform very well across multiple tested scenarios, contradicting the "going to die" narrative. ## Methodology - **Historical Case Study Review:** Analyzing flawed predictions from Benz, the *Times*, and the oil companies. - **Mapping Visualization:** Using a 2D map with axes representing two critical uncertainties to generate discrete, alternative world scenarios. - **Wargaming Origin:** Tracing scenario planning back to the 6th Century Indian game *Karunga* and the 1812 German game *Ciel*. - **Visual Communication:** Using physical, evocative tools (like doodle maps) to force deeper, non-linear thought compared to purely digital formats (like a Microsoft Word document). ## References Cited - *Originality*: Book by T Sharper N, published 1917. - *Future Shock*: Book by Alvin Toffler, published 1970. - *The Shape of Things to Come*: Book by HG Wells, published 1933. - Atlas or map: Used to illustrate the historical fluidity of national borders. ## Conclusions & Recommendations - Scenario planning is a superior intellectual exercise to simple predictive modeling. - Individuals and groups must take agency by deciding *where* they want to go and actively start moving in that direction. - Establishing societal agreement on a desired future trajectory is necessary for improving the present state of the world. ## Implications & Consequences - Over-reliance on linear trends risks trapping decision-making within historical paradigms. - A lack of collective vision breeds persistent anxiety, as people feel adrift without a shared destination. - The ability to visualize multiple paths forces a deeper consideration of interconnected variables across society. ## Open Questions - The precise location of the major emerging shifts and determining the guiding question that defines the desirable future state. ## Verbatim Moments - "if you gave an infinite number of futurists an infinite number of amount of time would one of them eventually get something right" - "hindsight is almost a necessarily a compliment to futurism" - "the project or task force team is temporary by Design" - "I think there's actually a much bigger problem than this and that problem is is essentially that in my view there is no such thing as the future" - "we don't need them [leaders]; we can all be leaders we can actually drive things forward ourselves" - "if we could at least agree amongst ourselves where we're actually going I think we'd soon start to rep[er]ceive the present in a different way and I think the future would be a much better place to live" - "it's just a way of getting people to actually think more deeply" - "The key thing is that you have to commit to where it is you actually want to go to"