TEDxMunich - Richard Watson
## Speaker Context * Speaker identity: Unspecified speaker, giving a talk about the future. * Setting, occasion of the talk: A presentation where the speaker discusses future prediction. * Any framing the speaker establishes for themselves up front: Initially called a futurist after writing a book about the next 50 years. ## People * Carl Benz: Engineer who predicted worldwide demand for automobiles. * Sir Aston Webb: Person who made a prediction about London in 2014 from the perspective of January 20, 1914. * Alvin Toffler: Author of the book *Future Shock*, published in 1970. * Peter Ducker: Person talking about the need for portfolio careers in the 1980s. * Warren Bennis: Person talking about the need for radical innovation in the 1960s. * HG Wells: Author of *The Shape of Things to Come* in 1933, talking about launching ballistic missiles from submarines. * Arthur C Clark: Person who saw a network of communication satellites orbiting the Earth in 1945. * James T Kirk: Fictional character who used what appears to be a Motorola Razor cell phone. * Friends: Group of people with whom the speaker made scenarios. * Librarians: Group of people in the audience who spotted a mistake on the extinction timeline regarding libraries. * Belgium: Country mentioned in the context of potential political boundary changes (e.g., North Belgium, South Belgium). ## Organizations * *The Times* newspaper: Published an article in 1894 suggesting London streets would be buried under horse manure. * Oil supplies company: Company in the US in the early 1980s trying to work out the demand for oil products. * Shell: Company that uses wargaming. ## Places * London: City whose future development was predicted in 1894. * English Countryside: Location where the speaker found old books. * America: Location regarding the cost of making a cent. ## Tools, Tech & Products * Motorola Razor cell phone: Device used by James T Kirk in fiction. * Kindle: E-reader device mentioned in relation to books. * A3 paper: Size of the doodle/map illustrating predicted changes over 50 years. * Microsoft Word document: Format the speaker notes that would not effectively visualize the data. ## Concepts & Definitions * Futurism: The practice or field of predicting the future. * Originality: Book title by T Sharper N, written in 1917, about the future. * Future Shock: Concept described by Alvin Toffler; the idea that technological change is accelerating and making people anxious. * Project or task force management: Organizational structure where teams are assembled for specific short-term problems and then disassembled. * Portfolio careers: Concept discussed regarding the need in the 1980s. * Radical innovation: Concept discussed regarding the need in the 1960s. * Ballistic missiles from submarines: Topic discussed by HG Wells in 1933. * Communication satellites orbiting the Earth: Network concept seen by Arthur C Clark in 1945. * Mega Trends: "Hotspots" on the map representing large-scale overarching changes (e.g., globalization, localism, urbanization, volatility debt anxiety). * Trends: Represented by the center of the map; an unfolding of event or events or dispositions, but do not tell us about the future direction or velocity of events. * Counter Trends: Anomalies or seemingly illogical combinations of events that actually clash. * Scenario Planning: A method for visualizing potential futures by looking at the impact of variables on long-term capital or expenditure. * Critical Uncertainties: Important stuff whose answer is unknown (used as axes for scenario planning). * Nimble: A quality required for adapting to the future, meaning able to adapt very quickly. ## Numbers & Data * 50 years: Period over which the speaker wrote a book about predicted changes. * 1886: Year Carl Benz made a prediction. * 1 million: Quantity of worldwide demand for automobiles that Carl Benz predicted the demand would never surpass. * 1894: Year an article appeared in the *Times* newspaper. * 50 years: Duration frame mentioned in relation to the *Times* prediction. * 9 ft: Depth to which London streets were predicted to be buried by manure. * 1917: Year the book *Originality* was written. * 2014: Year that Sir Aston Webb made a prediction for. * 20th of January 1914: Date from which Sir Aston Webb was drawing his prediction. * 120 ft: Width of the great roads out of London predicted by Sir Aston Webb. * 97 years: Age of the book *Originality*. * 50p: Price of the book *Future Shock*. * 1970: Year *Future Shock* was published. * 41 years: Age of the book *Future Shock* (at the time of speaking). * 1980s: Decade when Peter Ducker talked about portfolio careers. * 1960s: Decade when Warren Bennis talked about radical innovation. * 1933: Year HG Wells' book was written. * 1945: Year Arthur C Clark saw the network of communication satellites. * 10 to 15 years: Timeframe for the general consensus about the world's heading (in the 60s, 70s, or 80s). * 2 minutes and 53 seconds: Time remaining when the speaker started the final chart. ## Claims & Theses * The history of future prediction isn't particularly good. * Both predictions (1886 and 1894) were based on past experience. * Both predictions used critically false assumptions. * The mistake in the *Times* article was to assume that the growth in Horse Transport would go alongside the growth in the population of London. * The speaker's doodle map illustrates predictions for the next 50 years. * Trends do not tell us anything about the future direction, the velocity of events, or usually consider counter Trends anomalies. * In my view, there is no such thing as the future. * If you accept that the future is uncertain or at least ambiguous, I would argue there must be many alternative futures. * Most leaders in business or in politics etc. these days don't do this [develop a clear vision of the future]. * We can all be leaders; we can actually drive things forward ourselves. * The core problem of prediction is that nearly all of our knowledge is about the past, but virtually all of our most important decisions are about the future. * The ability to agree amongst ourselves where we're actually going would make the future a much better place to live. * Coins are going to go. * Desktop computers will go. * Landline telephones will go. * Libraries might be going (or at least, the speaker wrongly assumed they were). ## Mechanisms & Processes * Extrapolation from current trends: Mechanism used in the 1886 and 1894 predictions. * Determining the impact of variables: Process used in scenario planning, looking at potential impacts on long-term capital or expenditure. * Constructing alternative futures: Process involving plotting uncertainty axes (pessimism/optimism, activism/passivism) to generate distinct future worlds. * The process of making decisions based on the future: Mechanism requiring forward-thinking rather than backward extrapolation. ## Timeline & Events * 1886: Carl Benz made a prediction about automobile demand. * 1894: An article appeared in the *Times* newspaper. * 1917: *Originality* was written. * 1933: HG Wells published *The Shape of Things to Come*. * 1945: Arthur C Clark saw the concept of communication satellites. * 1970: *Future Shock* was published. * Early 1980s: Period when oil supplies companies were making forecasts. * 2008: Time reference point regarding consumerism shift (prior to this). * 6th Century: Origin of the Indian game *Karunga* (related to scenario planning). * 1812: Invention of the German war game *Ciel*. ## Examples & Cases * Carl Benz's prediction: Worldwide demand for automobiles would never surpass 1 million. * *Times* article prediction: Every single street in London would be buried under 9 ft of horse manure within 50 years. * Sir Aston Webb's prediction: Two great railway stations (North and South), 120 ft wide great roads out of London with two divisions (slow/fast traffic), and a huge belt of green fields surrounding London by 2014. * Alvin Toffler's example: Rapid rise of project or task force management, where teams are assembled for short-term problems and disassembled. * Example of past seers: Peter Ducker (portfolio careers in 1980s), Warren Bennis (radical innovation in 1960s), HG Wells (ballistic missiles from submarines in 1933), Arthur C Clark (communication satellites in 1945), James T Kirk (Motorola Razor phone). * Oil supplies company forecast: Using a logical high-low-medium forecast for oil rigs in the early 1980s in the US. * Scenario world example: Morismos (growth, consumerism, shopping, focused on 'me', pre-2008), Personal Fortress (running to mountains with food/ammo), Anism (world of switching things off, living on less, focusing on work-life balance), Smart Planet (belief in science/technology solving all problems). * Extinction timeline example: Coins, desktop computers, free roads wallets (going into phones), ashtrays, landline telephones, public libraries. * South Sudan/Belgium: Example used to illustrate that national borders move. ## Trade-offs & Alternatives * Current trend assumption vs. ignoring impact: The mistake of assuming horse transport growth follows population growth (T). * Doing nothing (letting the future happen): A relaxing but requires one to be quite Nimble. * Scenario Planning (Alternative): Developing narratives to look at the potential impact of multiple variables (vs. single linear forecasts). * Future Path Choice: Committing to a desired future path versus passively waiting for others to dictate the path. * Two main approaches to the future: Viewing it as 'new stuff' (technological) vs. 'old stuff' (familiar items disappearing). ## Counterarguments & Caveats * The assumption that cars always require a chauffeur: A critically false assumption made by Carl Benz. * The assumption that Horse Transport growth parallels population growth: A mistake in the *Times* article. * Not all list items are specific predictions (e.g., the list from the 80s/60s). * Trends don't tell us about future direction, velocity, or counter Trends. * Most organizations are neither Nimble nor open; they are mentally closed to the outside world. * The initial attempts to predict the future are often wrong. * Libraries: Speaker initially mistakes the concept, but shows evidence that in three out of four scenarios, libraries do very well. ## Methodology * Comparison: Comparing the flawed predictions of 1886/1894 to the actual evolution of technology. * Case Study Review: Examining pre-existing predictions from various sources (e.g., *Originality*, historical accounts). * Mapping Visualization: Creating a 2D map with axes for two uncertainties to plot potential future worlds. * Wargaming/Battle Planning: The origin of scenario planning. * Linear Forecasting: Method used by the oil supplies company (high, low, medium forecasts). ## References Cited * *Originality*: Book by T Sharper N, written in 1917. * *Future Shock*: Book by Alvin Toffler, published in 1970. * *The Shape of Things to Come*: Book by HG Wells, published in 1933. * Atlas or map: Used as a visual aid to discuss how country lines move. ## Conclusions & Recommendations * The speaker recommends scenario planning as a better bet than purely predictive modeling. * Individuals, households, corporations, and countries should decide where they want to go and start moving in that direction. * If we could agree amongst ourselves where we're actually going, the world would be a much better place. ## Implications & Consequences * If people believe trends too strongly, it can get people into trouble. * If a culture is mentally closed, it gets stuck with systems and assets from the past. * If society lacks a clear view of where it's going, anxiety will persist. * If people don't think critically about change, they will accept things just because "that's how it's always been." ## Open Questions * The question of where we are and where the big shifts are occurring, according to the map. ## Verbatim Moments * "if you gave an infinite number of futurists an infinite number of amount of time would one of them eventually get something right" * "I'll give you a couple of examples in 1886 the engineer Carl Benz confidently predicted that the worldwide demand for automobiles would never surpass 1 million" * "hindsight is almost a necessarily a compliment to futurism" * "it's called originality by T sharper n and it was written um in 1917" * "technological change is accelerating and it's making people really quite delirious and quite anxious" * "the project or task force team is temporary by Design" * "I think there's actually a much bigger problem than this and that problem is is essentially that in my view there is no such thing as the future" * "we don't need them [leaders]; we can all be leaders we can actually drive things forward ourselves" * "if we could at least agree amongst ourselves where it is we're actually going I think we'd soon start to rep[er]ceive the present in a different way and I think the future would be a much better place to live" * "it's just a way of getting people to actually think more deeply"